登海种业（002041）：公司信息更新报告：粮价低迷致种子滞销积压，期待价格回暖支撑业绩

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is facing challenges due to low grain prices leading to unsold seed inventory, with expectations for price recovery to support performance [1] - In 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 19.74% year-on-year to 1.246 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 77.86% to 57 million yuan [4][6] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 30.04% year-on-year to 163 million yuan, with a net profit of 25 million yuan, down 18.37% [4][6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards and introduced a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 173 million, 215 million, and 262 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 52.4, 42.2, and 34.7 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company's gross margin was 28.13%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.72%, down 12.56 percentage points [5] - The company reported a significant increase in R&D expenses, which rose by 24.79% to 83 million yuan, reflecting ongoing investment in research projects [5] - The company recorded a provision for inventory impairment of 129 million yuan due to unsold corn seed inventory [6] - The company has three genetically modified corn varieties that passed preliminary review, increasing the number of marketable varieties [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.166 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.540 billion yuan respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -6.4%, 16.4%, and 13.4% [7][9] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 173 million, 215 million, and 262 million yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.20, 0.24, and 0.30 yuan [7][9] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 2.1% in 2024 to 7.3% in 2027 [9][10]