文章转自2026年03月16日太平洋农业团队报告 ，分析师： 程晓东 投资要点 1. • 游，是一个市场规模超万亿级别的庞大产业链； 我我国粮食产业市场规模庞大，种业是产业中的芯片赛道，占据产业的核心地位 国粮食产业市场规模庞大。我国粮食产业链涉及农资、种植和食品加工、养殖等，其中种子处于上游，粮食种植处于中游，饲料养殖和食品加工等处于下 • 种业是粮食产业的芯片赛道，对于粮食安全具有非常重要的战略意义。良种良法良田中，良种是决定种植产品产量和品质的核心要素。十四五期间，我国粮食 增产中，良种贡献率超45 %。粮食种业在农作物种业中占据着核心地位。2024年，我国粮食种业市场价值超千亿元，在农作物种业中的占比超60 %； 2.粮价 底部 企稳上行，我国粮食产业景气触底向上 • 平到粮价低迷以及种业供给过剩格局等因素的多重影响，粮食产业景气低迷所致； 粮处食于板近块年盈来利底水部平区处间于；近2025 年来年底前部3季：度2024，两年板，块A股实粮现食扣种非植后板归块母和净种利业润板分块别上为市-7.92 公司亿分元别和实-9.92 现扣亿非元后，归亏母损净较利上润年-3.33 同期亿明元显和扩-1.14 大 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 23 日 猪肉全国均价跌破 10 元/KG，产能去化加速 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 11 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：3 月 17 日，农业农村部党组书记、部长韩俊主持 召开部党组专题会，研究深入推进种业振兴行动举措。会议强 调，要深入学习贯彻习近平总书记重要指示精神，认真落实党 中央、国务院决策部署，以更大力度、更实举措深入推进种业 振兴行动，加快实现种业科技自立自强、种源自主可控。会议 指出，党中央、国务院高度重视种业振兴，习近平总书记多次 对种业工作作出重要指示，在今年全国两会上发表重要讲话， 强调"种业是最重要的，搞农业要把种业搞上去"。种业振兴 行动实施五年来，我国种质资源家底更加厚实，种业企业实力 进一步增强，一些关键技术和重大品种取得突破，种业市场环 境持续优化，种源安全水平稳步提高，做到了中国粮主要用中 国种，蔬菜、畜禽水产当家品种立足国内有保障。"十五五" 时期要把种业工作摆上更加突出位置，乘势而上、加力攻坚， 系统谋划"十五五"种业振兴重大举措、重大政策、重 ...

[Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 11 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：3 月 17 日，农业农村部党组书记、部长韩俊主持 召开部党组专题会，研究深入推进种业振兴行动举措。会议强 调，要深入学习贯彻习近平总书记重要指示精神，认真落实党 中央、国务院决策部署，以更大力度、更实举措深入推进种业 振兴行动，加快实现种业科技自立自强、种源自主可控。会议 指出，党中央、国务院高度重视种业振兴，习近平总书记多次 对种业工作作出重要指示，在今年全国两会上发表重要讲话， 强调"种业是最重要的，搞农业要把种业搞上去"。种业振兴 行动实施五年来，我国种质资源家底更加厚实，种业企业实力 进一步增强，一些关键技术和重大品种取得突破，种业市场环 境持续优化，种源安全水平稳步提高，做到了中国粮主要用中 国种，蔬菜、畜禽水产当家品种立足国内有保障。"十五五" 时期要把种业工作摆上更加突出位置，乘势而上、加力攻坚， 系统谋划"十五五"种业振兴重大举措、重大政策、重大工 程，一个品种一个品种地抓，加快补齐短板弱项，推动种业振 兴取得突破性进展，为农业强国建设提供有力支撑。会议强 调，要紧盯种源创新， ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating that the expected changes in the industry will be relatively stable compared to the broader market [70]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 4.50% [13]. - The report highlights ongoing pressures in the pig farming industry, with prices expected to continue declining due to supply-side pressures and a potential increase in slaughter volumes [3][21]. - In poultry farming, while white feather chicken prices remain under pressure, yellow feather chicken prices have shown resilience due to improved downstream demand [4][35]. - The beef market is anticipated to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventories are decreasing, indicating a potential recovery in milk prices [5][39][42]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply and demand dynamics, with corn prices showing slight upward movement amid external uncertainties [6][45][46]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing signs of improvement in pricing [56]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2928.56 points, down 4.50% week-on-week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 9.90 yuan/kg, with a weekly decline of 1.79%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.62 kg, indicating a slight increase [21][22]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term due to supply pressures and ongoing losses in the sector [3][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.33 yuan/kg, showing a weekly increase of 1.66%. The profitability of parent stock and broiler chickens has improved slightly [34][35]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are 27.03 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 13.86%. The report expects beef prices to rise as the consumption season approaches [5][40][42]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2332.86 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.18% week-on-week. The report notes potential improvements in the planting sector if there are significant reductions in grain production [6][45][46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are 3.36 yuan/kg, showing a weekly increase of 0.30%. Aquaculture prices for various species have remained stable [56].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are significantly impacting the global commodity market, particularly benefiting agricultural stocks and commodities, although there are differing opinions on whether agricultural products can sustain a "super cycle" [2][3][4]. Group 1: Agricultural Sector Performance - The A-share agricultural sector saw a collective surge, with the planting industry index rising over 4%, reaching a 10.5-year high, and several stocks, including Nongfa Seed Industry and Shennong Seed Industry, experiencing gains of over 6% [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that the commodity cycle driven by geopolitical tensions typically follows a sequence: precious metals first, followed by energy and chemical products, and finally agricultural products [5][6]. Group 2: Price Dynamics and Influencing Factors - The rise in agricultural prices is not solely driven by geopolitical events; it is also supported by underlying industry logic, particularly weather patterns. The end of the La Niña phenomenon and the potential onset of El Niño could lead to significant weather-related impacts on crop yields [6][7]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are reshaping global commodity pricing, with UBS reporting a potential daily shortfall of about 10 million barrels in the oil market if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked until the end of April, which could push oil prices above $150 per barrel [9]. - Goldman Sachs provided various price scenarios, indicating that if oil supply resumes by March 21, Brent crude could average over $100 per barrel, while prolonged disruptions could raise fourth-quarter price forecasts significantly [9][10]. Group 3: Commodity Market Divergence - The commodity market is experiencing a divergence in price movements, with gold prices facing pressure from a strong dollar and inflation concerns, while copper and aluminum prices are influenced by complex supply-demand dynamics amid geopolitical tensions [10][11][12]. - The copper market is under pressure due to geopolitical instability, but demand remains resilient. Conversely, aluminum prices are affected by logistical challenges stemming from the Strait of Hormuz blockade, impacting supply contracts [12].

Core Viewpoint - The deep-sea technology sector has seen a significant surge in stock prices, with the sector rising over 6% despite a general market decline on March 16 [1]. Group 1: Deep-Sea Technology Sector Performance - The deep-sea technology concept index rose by 6.48%, reaching 1423.01 points, with notable stocks such as Deepwater Haina (300961) hitting the daily limit up of 20% shortly after market open [2][3]. - Key stocks in the sector include: - Deepwater Haina: +20.00% with a trading volume of 52.04 million [2]. - Zhongke Haixun: +14.72% with a trading volume of 9.32 million [2]. - Dongfang Ocean: +10.13% with a trading volume of 77.20 million [2]. - Shenkai Co.: +10.00% with a trading volume of 160 million [2]. - Haimer Technology: +8.33% with a trading volume of 21.07 million [2]. Group 2: Policy Support for Marine Economy - An important article in the March 16 issue of "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need for enhanced top-level design and policy support to promote high-quality development of the marine economy [4]. - The article proposed the formulation of guiding opinions and a "14th Five-Year" marine economic development plan, with increased support in industry, technology, finance, and taxation [4]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources also highlighted the importance of coordinated development of the marine economy, advocating for a comprehensive approach that integrates coastal, offshore, deep-sea, and polar strategies [5]. Group 3: Agricultural Sector Performance - The planting industry sector showed strength, with stocks like Nongfa Seed Industry hitting the daily limit up of 10.06% and other companies such as Denghai Seed Industry and Shennong Seed Industry also experiencing gains [6][7]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized the importance of stabilizing grain production and increasing the yield of major crops, aiming for a total grain output of approximately 1.4 trillion jin for the year [8].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "positive" rating for the grain planting sector, indicating that the dynamic PE is at a low range historically, and a "positive" rating for the seed sector, as the industry shows signs of recovery from the bottom [5][75]. Core Insights - China's grain industry is vast, with the seed sector being a critical component, contributing over 45% to grain production during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The market value of the grain seed industry is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2024, accounting for over 60% of the crop seed market [3][11][14]. - Grain prices have stabilized and are on an upward trend, which is expected to improve profitability in the grain planting sector. The profitability of the grain sector has been at a low point, with significant losses reported in 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025 [3][41]. - The bio-breeding industry in China is accelerating, with a rapid increase in the penetration of high-margin genetically modified seed products. The market for genetically modified corn is projected to grow significantly, with a current penetration rate of around 5% [5][6][58]. Summary by Sections 1. China's Grain Industry Size and Seed Sector Importance - The grain industry chain in China involves various sectors, including agricultural inputs, planting, and food processing, with a market size exceeding one trillion yuan. The seed sector is crucial for determining the yield and quality of crops [3][11][12]. 2. Stabilization and Recovery of Grain Prices - Grain prices have shown signs of recovery, with domestic prices for corn, wheat, and japonica rice increasing since early 2026. This recovery is attributed to factors such as farmers holding back sales and international market dynamics [41][46]. 3. Acceleration of Bio-Breeding Industry - The bio-breeding sector is experiencing rapid development, supported by government policies and increasing market demand for high-margin genetically modified seeds. The number of approved genetically modified corn and soybean varieties has surged, indicating a strong push towards commercialization [58][62][69].

Investment Rating - The report rates the agricultural sector as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [5]. Core Insights - The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching $92.7 per barrel, a 28% increase from the previous week, marking the largest weekly gain since 1991. WTI crude rose to $90.0 per barrel, a 36% increase, the largest since its listing in 1983 [5]. - Historically, core agricultural product prices such as corn and soybeans have shown a strong correlation with oil prices. Rising oil prices are expected to boost agricultural prices through increased biofuel usage and cost transmission [5]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. Planting industry: Benefiting directly from the anticipated rise in agricultural prices, with companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang being key players [5]. 2. Seed industry: Seed prices typically lag behind agricultural prices, with potential for recovery in the medium term, featuring companies like Longping High-Tech and Denghai Seeds [5]. 3. Pig farming: 2026 is projected to be a year of recovery for farming profits, with a focus on the pace and extent of capacity reduction, involving companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [5]. Summary by Sections Oil and Agricultural Price Trends - The report details the historical price movements of oil and agricultural products, indicating that oil price fluctuations significantly impact agricultural prices [8]. - Recent data shows that agricultural prices in China have declined over the past three years, with maximum declines of 25% to 35% for wheat, corn, and soybeans. However, a recovery trend has been observed since early 2025 [15]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies specific companies within the agricultural sector that are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated price increases, including: - Planting: Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, Hainan Rubber [18]. - Seeds: Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, Kangnong Seeds [20]. - Pig farming: Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, Wens Foodstuffs [18].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran is driving oil prices towards a potential $100 per barrel, with significant implications for various industries and investment opportunities arising from the energy crisis [1][2]. Oil Price Surge and Its Impact - International oil prices have surged dramatically, with U.S. oil and Brent crude both surpassing $90 per barrel, marking the largest weekly increases since 1983 and 1991, respectively [1]. - The conflict has severely affected the shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily vessel traffic plummeting by 94%, leading to a significant loss in global oil supply estimated between 7 million to 11 million barrels per day [1][5]. Beneficiary Sectors in A-Share Market - The oil and gas extraction sector is expected to benefit directly from rising oil prices, with companies like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation showing strong performance [3]. - Other sectors such as coal chemical and energy-related companies are also positioned to gain from the current high oil price environment, with companies like Baofeng Energy and China Coal Energy showing promising growth [4][5]. Energy Sector Valuation Reassessment - The surge in oil prices is reshaping the internal valuation system of the energy sector, with upstream oil and gas extraction companies experiencing the most direct benefits [5]. - Analysts suggest that the geopolitical tensions may sustain high oil prices, benefiting major state-owned enterprises in the oil and gas sector [5]. Coal Chemical Industry Dynamics - The rising oil prices are expected to enhance the competitiveness of coal chemical products, as companies in this sector can leverage stable raw material costs while benefiting from rising product prices [6]. - The coal chemical sector is seen as having clear upward momentum in the current high oil price environment, making it a focal point for investment [6]. Chemical Supply Chain Disruptions - The conflict is causing significant disruptions in the global chemical supply chain, particularly affecting methanol production, with Iran being a major supplier [8][9]. - The rising costs of raw materials, including natural gas and shipping, are expected to push up prices for various chemical products, including bromine and methanol [10][11]. Agricultural Sector Implications - The energy crisis is impacting agricultural production costs, particularly through rising fertilizer prices, which could lead to reduced fertilizer usage and potential declines in crop yields [12][13]. - The geopolitical tensions are also expected to affect the supply of key agricultural inputs like urea and potash, with potential price increases anticipated [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][47]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pig farming sector is experiencing significant losses, with production capacity reduction accelerating. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is driving up oil prices, which may lead to an increase in agricultural product prices [1][2]. - The report suggests that the period from March to May is traditionally a low demand season for pork, and the supply side is expected to remain ample, indicating that Q2 2026 may represent the peak supply period of the current pig cycle [2][4]. - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the planting sector due to rising oil prices and the potential for agricultural product prices to rebound after a three-year decline [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 2.1%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.1%. The top five gainers included Yasheng Group (39.0%), COFCO Technology (8.4%), Dunhuang Seed Industry (8.2%), Agricultural Development Seed Industry (8.1%), and Shennong Technology (7.4%) [3][10]. - The top five decliners were Biotech Co. (-6.7%), Yong'an Forestry (-6.7%), Dahu Co. (-6.3%), Jinxin Agriculture (-6.0%), and Huisheng Biotech (-5.2%) [3][10]. Pig Farming - The average price of external three yuan pigs as of March 8 was 10.23 CNY/kg, down 0.44 CNY/kg week-on-week, marking a 4.1% decline and the lowest price since October 2021 [2][11]. - Losses for self-breeding sows with 5,000-10,000 heads have increased to 206.3 CNY/head, reflecting a week-on-week increase of approximately 46.7 CNY/head [2][11]. - The report anticipates that the pig price will continue to decline, with a potential second bottoming out phase expected between March and May, leading to a re-initiation of production capacity reduction [2][4]. Planting Sector - The report notes that the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has led to a significant increase in oil prices, which may positively influence agricultural product prices. As of March 6, WTI crude oil prices reached 91 USD/barrel, a 36% increase from before the blockade [2][4]. - The report suggests that major agricultural product prices have been at historical lows after a three-year decline, indicating potential investment opportunities in the planting and seed sectors [2][4]. Poultry and Livestock - The report indicates that the prices of major poultry products have shown slight fluctuations, with the average sales price of white feather chicken at 3.52 CNY/kg, down 3.6% week-on-week [2][14]. - The beef market remains strong, with the average price of fattened bulls at 25.74 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week [2][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the pig farming sector, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Shennong Group, as well as in the planting sector, including Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [2][4].