证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 25 日 猪肉供过于求局面加剧，猪价继续下跌 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 26 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：8 月 19 日，农业农村部种植业管理司会同全国农 业技术推广服务中心在广西南宁召开全国秋粮作物中后期重大 病虫害防控现场会，组织主产省份观摩重大病虫害绿色防控作 业现场，邀请行业专家重点讲解水稻和玉米病虫害发生规律及 绿色防控技术，动员安排秋粮作物重大病虫害防控工作。会议 指出，秋粮产量占全年粮食产量的四分之三，要完成今年粮食 产量 1.4 万亿斤左右的目标任务，关键看秋粮。把好秋粮病虫 害防控关，对夺取全年粮食丰收意义重大。当前，受降雨偏多 等不利因素影响，秋粮重大病虫害发生重于上年，监测防控任 务仍较为艰巨。8—9 月份是秋粮产量形成的关键时期，也是病 虫害多发重发期。各地要高度重视，突出重点、分类指导、科 学防控，抓住主要作物、重点区域、重大病虫和关键环节，全 力以赴推进"虫口夺粮"保秋粮丰收行动。在粮食安全背景 下，转基因技术在提升单产方面具有革命性作用，我们判断 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [9] Core Insights - The pet industry is experiencing significant growth, with the Asia Pet Expo showcasing over 2,600 exhibitors and 20,000 brands, indicating a thriving market driven by globalization and innovation [2][13] - China's pet food exports have shown continuous growth, with 201,000 tons exported from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.64% [14] - The pig farming sector is facing challenges, with the average pig price at 13.82 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.63% from the previous week, and the average weight of pigs reaching a historical high [15][16] - The dairy sector is poised for a recovery, with the original milk price expected to rebound as production capacity decreases after a prolonged period of losses [17][18] - The poultry sector is focusing on breeding gaps, with a significant decline in the import of breeding chickens due to avian influenza concerns, which may impact future supply [19][20] - The planting sector emphasizes food security and the importance of biotechnology, with a focus on high-yield and resilient crop varieties [25] - The feed sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from market recovery and increased market share [26] Summary by Sections Pet Sector - The Asia Pet Expo has reached a record scale of 310,000 square meters, highlighting the industry's vitality and innovation potential [2][13] - Pet food exports from China have increased, with a total of 201,000 tons exported in the first seven months of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.64% [14] - Recommended companies include pet food brands like Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [14] Pig Sector - The average pig price is currently at 13.82 yuan/kg, with a year-to-date low in profitability for pig farming [15][16] - The average weight of pigs is at a historical high, indicating supply pressures [15] - Recommended companies include leading pig farming firms such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods [16] Dairy Sector - Yuran Dairy reported stable performance with a revenue of 10.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [17] - The dairy industry is expected to see a recovery as production capacity decreases [18] - Recommended companies include Yuran Dairy and China Shengmu Organic Milk [18] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding imports, particularly for white chickens, due to avian influenza [19][20] - Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock [20] Planting Sector - The focus is on food security and biotechnology, with an emphasis on high-yield and resilient crop varieties [25] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong Technology Group [25] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to its increasing market share and performance [26] - The animal health sector is also recommended, particularly companies like Kexin Biological [27]

01 主题： 道明光学经营交流会 时间：8月25日（周一）16:00 嘉宾：董事会秘书 钱总 技术总监 王总 主持 ：王亮 院长助理&化工首席分析师 王海涛 化工分析师 参会密码： 038050 02 主 题： 凯普生物2025年半年报业绩交流会 时间： 8月26日（周二）10 : 00 嘉宾：首席科学家 谢总 主持：程晓东 农业首席分析师 董事会秘书 陈总 财务总监 李总 主持 ：谭紫媚 医药首席分析师 李啸岩 医药分析师 参会密码：680176 03 主 题： 传媒行业投资观点更新 时间： 8月27日（周三）20 : 00 主讲：郑磊 传媒首席分析师 参会密码： 946297 04 主题：登海种业半年报解读电话会议 时间： 8月28日（周四）09 : 30 嘉宾：副总经理&董事会秘书 原总 参会密码：721739 05 主题： 再谈汽车零部件的人形机器人时刻 时间： 8月28日（周四）19 : 00 主讲：刘虹辰 汽车首席分析师 参会密码： 022047 06 主题：电子行业9月投资观点 时间： 8月29日（周五）15 : 00 主讲： 张世杰 电子首席分析师 参会密码： 397916 07 主题： 行业 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 08 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《猪价新一轮上行或逐步开启，非瘟 疫苗打开动保板块成长空间—行业周 报》-2025.8.17 《8 月 USDA 农产品报告上调全球玉 米、水稻产量，下调大豆、小麦产量 —行业点评报告》-2025.8.15 《出猪节奏导致 7 月猪价涨幅不及预 期，后市猪价不悲观—行业点评报 告》-2025.8.14 10 收储助推猪价见底回升，宠物食品出口及国内消费 高景气延续 饲料板块国内市场受益禽畜后周期，海外强劲需求支撑价格。推荐：海大集 团、新希望等。 消费升级叠加关税壁垒，宠物板块国货崛起逻辑持续强化。推荐：乖宝宠物、 中宠股份、佩蒂股份。 本周市场表现（8.18-8.22）:农业跑赢大盘 0.23 个百分点 ——行业周报 陈雪丽（分析师） 王高展（分析师） chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S ...

2025 年 8 月 24 日 本周毛鸡价格上涨，鸡苗价格持平。截至 8 月 22 日，白羽肉毛鸡价格为 7.33 元/公斤，周环比上涨 1.81%，鸡苗价格 3.58 元/羽，与上周持平。毛鸡方面， 本周屠宰企业压价、鸡肉冻品走货不畅，但肉鸡出栏量有限、局部供给偏紧， 价格暂获支撑、高位窄幅震荡。鸡苗方面，毛鸡盈利仍存、种禽场高报低走， 当前补栏窗口渐窄，规模场挺价的同时，散户补栏情绪偏谨慎，市场博弈加 剧，苗价进入震荡调整。 本周玉米、小麦、豆粕现货价格下跌。截至 8 月 22 日，玉米现货均价为 2373.53 元/吨，环比下跌 0.86%；小麦现货均价为 2432 元/吨，环比下跌 0.25%，豆粕现货均价 3084.29 元/吨，环比下跌 0.41%。玉米方面，本周玉米 现货价格继续走弱，受春玉米陆续上市、小麦替代优势仍在，以及贸易商出库 意愿增强影响，市场流通粮源充裕而用粮企业采购谨慎，压价情绪升温，玉米 价格整体偏弱运行。豆粕方面，本周豆粕价格延续跌势，受国内现货供应宽 松、油厂库存高位及新作丰产预期压制，贸易商降价出货意愿增强，但外盘成 本支撑下跌幅有限，短期弱势震荡为主。天然橡胶价格下跌。截 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a slight decline with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3725.22 points, just above the annual line, indicating a stable market performance despite a minor drop of 0.06% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 15,350.35 billion yuan today [1]. - A total of 21 A-shares have surpassed the annual line, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1]. Group 2: Stocks with Significant Deviation Rates - ST Kaiyuan (300338) leads with a deviation rate of 12.28%, closing at 4.34 yuan after a 12.73% increase [1]. - Anjie Technology (002635) follows with a deviation rate of 8.47%, closing at 15.72 yuan with a 10.01% increase [1]. - Water Well (600779) has a deviation rate of 3.00%, closing at 45.85 yuan after a 4.09% increase [1]. Group 3: Stocks with Minor Deviation Rates - Times Electric (688187) has a minimal deviation rate of 0.04%, closing at 45.45 yuan with a 1.00% increase [2]. - Gansu Energy (000552) shows a deviation rate of 0.12%, closing at 2.53 yuan with a 0.40% increase [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The USDA supply and demand report indicates an increase in U.S. corn acreage and yield, with global corn production (excluding China) forecasted to rise by 24.92 million tons to 990 million tons for the 2025/26 season, a year-on-year increase of 51.69 million tons [11] - U.S. soybean planting area has been unexpectedly reduced, with production estimates down by 1.29 million tons to 40.5 million tons, while the yield is projected to reach a record 53.6 bushels per acre [19] - Favorable weather conditions have improved EU wheat yields, but global wheat stock-to-use ratio has been revised down [29][30] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report raised the global corn production estimate (excluding China) for 2025/26 by 24.92 million tons to 990 million tons, with U.S. corn acreage up by 1.15 million acres and yield forecasted at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, potentially reaching a total of 42.5 million tons [11] - The ending stocks for global corn (excluding China) are projected to be 10.4 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio of 10.8%, up 1 percentage point [11] Soybeans - The global soybean production estimate (excluding China) for 2025/26 has been reduced by 1.29 million tons to 40.5 million tons, with U.S. production down by 1.16 million tons to 11.7 million tons, reflecting a 2% year-on-year decrease [19] - The ending stocks for global soybeans (excluding China) are estimated at 8.152 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio of 27.9%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month [19] Wheat - The global wheat production estimate (excluding China) for 2025/26 has been increased by 350,000 tons to 667 million tons, with U.S. production slightly down by 40,000 tons to 52.45 million tons [29] - The ending stocks for global wheat (excluding China) are projected to be 13.53 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio of 20.5%, down 0.3 percentage points [30] Investment Recommendations - In the context of extreme weather and geopolitical tensions affecting grain prices, the report emphasizes the importance of seed source control for national food security, recommending focus on leading seed companies with transgenic advantages such as Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Qianyinhai [38]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The pork market is experiencing an oversupply, leading to a continued decline in pork prices. The average price of external three yuan pigs is 14.13 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.09% [2][12] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the need for quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in the pig industry, suggesting that outdated production capacity will gradually be eliminated [2][13] - The report highlights the potential benefits of genetically modified crops in increasing yield and self-sufficiency rates for key varieties, with specific companies recommended for investment [12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - A meeting was held to discuss increasing crop yields in Northeast China, which is crucial for national food security. The region has seen improvements in planting density and technology, contributing to stable yield increases [1] - Companies such as Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development are expected to benefit from these developments, along with seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Pig Farming - The average price of pigs has shown a downward trend, with the average weight of slaughtered pigs decreasing for eight consecutive weeks. The number of breeding sows has also decreased slightly [2][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, including DeKang Agriculture and Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. [13] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2406.65 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.09% [27] - Wheat: The average price is 2440.86 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.08% [30] - Rice: The average price of japonica rice is 2912.00 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.14% [35] - Soybeans: The average price is 3926.32 yuan/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [40] - Cotton: The average price is 15410.00 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.02% [47] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.73 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37% [53] - The average price of vitamin E is 68.00 yuan/kg, remaining stable week-on-week [62]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for high-quality development in the pig farming industry, focusing on improving efficiency and quality. It highlights the importance of capacity control and the encouragement of large enterprises to collaborate with smaller farms to share industry benefits [2][12] - In the planting industry, the report discusses the promotion of new varieties and technologies to enhance crop yields, particularly in the context of food security. It predicts a continued acceleration in the commercialization of genetically modified crops [1][11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is working on a directory for superior crop varieties by 2025, focusing on enhancing yields and meeting current production needs [1][11] - The report identifies potential beneficiaries in the planting sector, including Beidahuang and Su-Kun Agricultural Development, and recommends companies with strong advantages in seed development such as Longping High-Tech and Denge Seed Industry [1][11] Pig Farming - The average price of external three-way cross pigs is 14.29 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.20%. The overall supply exceeds demand, leading to a forecast of continued price declines [2][12] - The report notes a decrease in the number of breeding sows, with a total of 40.43 million as of June 2025, down by 370,000 from the previous year [2][12] - Recommended companies in the pig farming sector include Dekang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [2][12] Feed and Animal Health - The average price of pig feed is 2.72 CNY/kg, with no change from the previous week. The report also provides insights into the prices of various feed types for poultry and livestock [50][52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, with expectations of rising prices in the second half of 2025 [25] - The domestic pet consumption market remains stable, but trade tensions have put pressure on exports, with a notable decline in sales and export figures [20][29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Short-term supply increases have led to a decline in pig prices, but after market adjustments, prices may rise further [4][13] - As of July 18, the average price of live pigs was 14.19 yuan/kg, down 3.34% from the previous week [13][14] Weekly Market Performance - The agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.83 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% [30][32] - The animal health sector showed the highest gains among sub-sectors [30] Price Tracking - The average price of live pigs decreased to 14.27 yuan/kg, while the price of piglets increased slightly to 31.96 yuan/kg [41] - The price of corn decreased to 2473 yuan/ton, while soybean meal prices rose to 2928 yuan/ton [15][56] Key News - As of the end of Q2 2025, the number of breeding sows was reported at 40.43 million, with overall meat production showing a slight increase [38] - The report indicates a stable trend in domestic pet food sales, with a total of 31.87 billion yuan in sales for June, down 7.98% year-on-year [20][23] Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, while in the feed sector, Hai Da Group and New Hope Liuhe are highlighted [25][29]