NHD(SZ:002946) Guohai Securities·2025-04-28 15:26Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the company's continuous improvement in core business advantages and profit margin enhancement, with a focus on the "Fresh Cube Strategy" to strengthen core business and expand market share [6][9]. - The company reported a revenue of 10.665 billion yuan for 2024, a slight decrease of 2.93% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.8% to 538 million yuan [5][9]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.42%, and a net profit of 133 million yuan, up 48.46% year-on-year [5][9]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock performance over the past year shows a 65.2% increase compared to the CSI 300 index, which only increased by 5.5% [4]. - The current stock price is 15.99 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 7.88 to 18.26 yuan [4]. Financial Highlights - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 1.5 percentage points in 2024, attributed to structural improvements and cost benefits, with the average price of fresh milk decreasing by 13.5% year-on-year [6]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 5.04%, an increase of 112 basis points year-on-year [6]. Growth Drivers - Low-temperature products performed exceptionally well, with significant growth in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, while the contribution from room-temperature products was under pressure [6]. - The East China region became a key growth driver, with revenue growth supported by a higher proportion of low-temperature products and strong product innovation [6][9]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.178 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 5%, and net profits of 684 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27% [8][9]. - The report anticipates continued profit margin improvements, with a diluted earnings per share (EPS) forecast of 0.79 yuan for 2025 [8][9].