菲利华（300395）：行业波动业绩筑底，景气上行弹性充足

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In 2024, the company's semiconductor business is expected to grow steadily, while demand fluctuations in aerospace and other sectors have led to a year-on-year decline in overall revenue and performance. The gross margin has decreased due to changes in revenue structure and improved processing capabilities [2][10]. - The company has made progress in four major business areas: aerospace, semiconductor, optics, and advanced technologies. A recovery in aerospace demand and the maturation of high-end civilian layouts are anticipated to lead to a new phase of rapid growth starting in 2025 [2][10]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.742 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 314 million yuan, down 41.56% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, operating revenue was 428 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.14%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.43% [4][10]. - The semiconductor materials and products business saw a revenue increase of 11% in 2024, driven by new high-end products achieving stable mass production and ongoing efforts for domestic substitution. However, the aerospace sector experienced a significant decline due to demand fluctuations [10]. - The company's gross margin has been affected by a reduction in the proportion of high-margin aerospace business and rising prices of imported quartz sand in the semiconductor sector. The gross margin for quartz glass materials and products has also declined due to increased labor and manufacturing costs [10]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 607 million yuan, 822 million yuan, and 1.147 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 93%, 35%, and 40%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 41, 30, and 21 times [10].