新华都（002264）：费率优化积极，盈利提升稳步兑现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 1.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 90 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year. The profit performance met market expectations, but revenue fell short due to differences in revenue recognition and accounting methods [7] - The company's main brands in the liquor segment, such as Lao Jiao and Fen Jiu, maintained double-digit growth despite challenges in online sales. The sales of non-standard products showed positive momentum, contributing to overall performance [7] - The company achieved a cash collection ratio of 139% in Q1 2025, indicating significant improvement in accounts receivable and prepayments [7] - Profitability improved due to rate optimization and the recognition of other income. The net profit margin increased by 1.9 percentage points to 8.6% year-on-year, driven by reduced sales and management expenses [7] Financial Forecasts - The total revenue forecast for 2023A is 2.824 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 30.18% in 2024A, reaching 3.676 billion yuan. By 2025E, revenue is expected to be 4.052 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 10.22% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 200.74 million yuan in 2023A, increasing to 260.17 million yuan in 2024A, and further to 342.42 million yuan in 2025E, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.61% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.28 yuan in 2023A to 0.36 yuan in 2024A, and to 0.48 yuan in 2025E [1] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 22.45 for 2023A, decreasing to 17.32 for 2024A, and further to 13.16 for 2025E, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [1] - The projected P/E ratios for 2026E and 2027E are 9.93 and 7.51, respectively, suggesting continued value appreciation potential [1]