酒鬼酒：业绩仍承压，静待内外理顺-20250429

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.30, 0.45, and 0.605 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 147, 96, and 72 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 1.42 billion RMB, down 49.7% year-on-year, and net profit at 0.1 billion RMB, down 97.7% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 also showed a revenue of 0.34 billion RMB, down 30.3% year-on-year, and net profit of 0.3 billion RMB, down 56.8% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on performance [2][5]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and restructuring its product lineup, implementing a "2+2+2" strategy to streamline its offerings. This includes reducing the SKU count for its flagship products [3]. - The company is also managing its distribution channels more effectively, with a focus on high-quality store standards and targeted market expansion strategies [4]. Revenue and Profitability Analysis - The revenue breakdown by product for 2024 shows significant declines in major brands, with "内参" and "酒鬼" down 67% and 49% respectively, while "湘泉" saw an increase of 8%. The average selling prices for these products also decreased, impacting gross margins [3]. - The company’s gross profit margin decreased to 71.4% in 2024, down 7.0 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit margin dropping to 0.9%, down 18.5 percentage points year-on-year [4][10]. Market and Channel Performance - Online and offline revenue for 2024 was 1.9 billion RMB and 12.3 billion RMB respectively, reflecting declines of 34% and 51% year-on-year. The number of distributors also decreased significantly across various regions [4]. - The company is implementing a tiered management system for its clients and focusing on building a core terminal network of 24,000 stores [4]. Future Projections - The report projects a revenue decline of 3.0% in 2025, followed by growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 7.2% in 2027. Net profit is expected to recover to 1.0 billion RMB in 2025, 1.5 billion RMB in 2026, and 2.0 billion RMB in 2027 [5][10].