NHD(SZ:002264) Soochow Securities·2025-04-29 01:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 1.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 90 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year. The profit performance met market expectations, but revenue fell short due to differences in revenue recognition and accounting methods [7] - The company’s main brands in the liquor segment showed double-digit growth despite overall sales pressure, with non-standard products maintaining positive momentum. The cash collection ratio reached 139% in Q1 2025, indicating significant improvement in accounts receivable and prepayments [7] - Profitability improved due to rate optimization and the recognition of other income. The sales net profit margin increased by 1.9 percentage points to 8.6% year-on-year, driven by optimized sales expenses and contributions from other income [7] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been slightly adjusted, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 342 million, 454 million, and 600 million yuan respectively. The current market capitalization corresponds to a P/E ratio of 13, 10, and 8 times for 2025 to 2027 [7][10] - The company is expected to benefit from its dual role as a brand service provider and distributor, allowing for closer cooperation with brand owners in the new retail wave of liquor sales [7]