ANGEL YEAST(SH:600298) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-29 02:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company had a steady start in Q1 2025, with a total revenue of 3.79 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.95%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 370 million yuan, up 16.0% year-on-year [4][5] - The report maintains the forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 at 1.705 billion, 2.154 billion, and 2.574 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.96, 2.48, and 2.96 yuan [4][5] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17.2, 13.6, and 11.4 for 2025-2027 [4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the revenue from the yeast business grew by 13.2% year-on-year, while the sugar business saw a decline of 60.7% and the packaging business decreased by 4.4% [5] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.31 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the decrease in molasses costs [6] - The net profit margin increased by 0.59 percentage points year-on-year, despite a rise in the tax rate that negatively impacted the net profit margin by 0.76 percentage points [6] Cost and Profitability Outlook - The decrease in molasses prices is expected to release profit elasticity, with a forecasted decline of over 15% in molasses costs for 2025 [7] - The company aims for a 10% revenue growth target for the year, supported by stock incentives to enhance employee motivation [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 16.866 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0% [9] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 1.705 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.7% [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 26.5% in 2025, with a net margin of 10.1% [9]