ZHONGYIN BABI FOOD CO.(605338) 国信证券·2025-04-29 02:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, maintained from previous assessments [5][15]. Core Views - The company reported a 4.45% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q1 2025, amounting to 370 million yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.13% to 37 million yuan [8][11]. - The company is experiencing a stabilization in operations, with improvements in same-store sales and contributions from acquisitions [2][11]. - The company plans to open 1,000 new stores in 2025, despite a high short-term closure rate, which is expected to ease as same-store revenue recovers [2][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of approximately 25.5%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to seasonal revenue fluctuations and increased depreciation from the Wuhan factory [2][11]. - The company maintained good cost control, with sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreasing by 1.0 and 0.1 percentage points to 4.1% and 7.5%, respectively [2][11]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was approximately 10.5%, reflecting stable profitability [2][11]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from various segments in Q1 2025 showed the following year-on-year changes: rice products +2.6%, filling products +11.4%, purchased food +3.7%, packaging and auxiliary materials +3.4%, and service fees -14.7% [11]. - Franchise income increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and group meal business revenue grew by 11.7%, driven by rapid growth in new retail and restaurant chain channels [11]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 1.83 billion, 1.99 billion, and 2.14 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.4%, 8.6%, and 8.0% [3][15]. - Expected net profits for the same period are 250 million, 270 million, and 300 million yuan, with a projected decline of 8.6% in 2025, followed by growth of 8.0% and 8.1% in 2026 and 2027 [3][15].