AMD(SZ:002623) HTSC·2025-04-29 02:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 17.72 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 289 million RMB and a net profit attributable to the parent company of -13 million RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.3% and 2.1 million RMB respectively. The performance aligns with the midpoint of the earnings forecast [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 56 million RMB and a net profit of 0.5 million RMB, showing a year-on-year decline of 36.8% and 58.3% respectively. Despite the decline in revenue and profit, the gross margin improved compared to the previous quarter [1]. - The company is focusing on overseas capacity expansion, with a planned investment of 240 million USD in the UAE to build a production line for 500,000 tons of photovoltaic glass annually, enhancing its international competitiveness [4]. - The company maintains a differentiated competitive strategy, with over 50% of its sales in ultra-thin photovoltaic glass in 2024, and is developing innovative technologies for ITO conductive glass to meet future market demands [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue from solar glass, solar modules, electricity sales, and electronic glass was 262 million RMB, 4 million RMB, 5 million RMB, and 16 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year changes of -20.2%, -76.8%, -6.1%, and +68.7%. The gross margins were 2.8%, -2.0%, 28.7%, and 11.7% respectively [2]. - The overall gross margin improved from 2.3% in Q4 2024 to 7.2% in Q1 2025, with expectations for continued improvement in Q2 as photovoltaic glass prices stabilize [2]. Cost and Cash Flow - The company’s expense ratio for 2024 was 7.2%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a decline in revenue. The operating cash flow improved significantly to 340 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 187.7% [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through overseas capacity expansion and a focus on differentiated products, particularly in the ultra-thin glass segment [4]. - The company’s unique technology and early experience in TCO glass production position it well for future market demands in high-strength, low-thickness glass for perovskite products [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 0.18 RMB, 0.80 RMB, and 0.90 RMB respectively, reflecting an 18% and 9% increase from previous estimates. The target price is set at 17.72 RMB, based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.2x for 2025 [5].