Guangzhou Restaurant(603043) 光大证券·2025-04-29 02:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 23 CNY per share [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.05 billion CNY in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 50 million CNY, down 27.9% year-on-year [1]. - The restaurant segment showed robust growth, with a revenue increase of 10.1% year-on-year, driven by high customer traffic during the Spring Festival [2]. - The company announced a share buyback plan of 100 to 143 million CNY to enhance investor confidence and improve long-term incentive mechanisms [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown: Mooncake series revenue was 7.29 million CNY (down 19.25% YoY), frozen food revenue was 285 million CNY (down 3.33% YoY), and restaurant revenue was 423 million CNY (up 10.1% YoY) [2]. - The overall gross margin for Q1 2025 was 25.36%, a decrease of 4.45 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the increased proportion of lower-margin restaurant revenue [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 5.95%, down 2.02 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Growth Outlook - The company expects a strong performance in the second half of the year, particularly in the mooncake segment, due to favorable holiday timing and increased consumer demand [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 551 million CNY, 612 million CNY, and 678 million CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.97 CNY, 1.08 CNY, and 1.19 CNY [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation with a PE ratio of 16x for 2025, decreasing to 13x by 2027 [4][5]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 9.05 billion CNY, with a total share count of 569 million [6].