高盛：中国本地客户如何看待经济-2025 年 4 月本地营销要点

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Local investors express heightened concerns regarding the US-China trade war, leading to a limited risk appetite in the near term due to rising market volatility and uncertainty [2][3] - There is optimism regarding China's resilience in the trade war, with expectations that the US may lower tariffs on China within three months [3][8] - Local investors have low expectations for upcoming policy easing measures in China, anticipating that significant easing will only occur if clear signs of economic slowdown appear [9] - Long-term economic reforms are deemed more important than short-term stimulus, with a focus on enhancing the social safety net and supply-side reforms to support consumption growth [10] Summary by Sections Concerns Over US-China Trade War - Onshore clients are exploring game theory frameworks to assess US-China economic competitiveness and the Trump administration's goals [2] - Key concerns include the potential for coordinated tariffs blocking Chinese exports and escalation beyond a trade war [2] Optimism on China's Resilience - Local clients believe that US importers have limited short-term flexibility to find alternative sources under tariff pressure [3] - Many expect the US to lower China-focused tariffs and grant firm-level tariff exemptions to stabilize the market [3][8] Expectations for Policy Easing in China - Onshore investors have lowered expectations for aggressive fiscal stimulus, with many anticipating the next round of easing after the July Politburo meeting [9] - Local clients think that rate and RRR cuts may only occur if there are clear signs of economic slowdown [9] Importance of Long-term Economic Reform - Most local clients emphasize the need for long-term reforms over short-term stimulus, focusing on policies that enhance the social safety net and support domestic demand [10] - Structural monetary policies are considered more important than broad-based easing, with expectations for targeted easing for companies and households affected by tariffs [10]