芒果超媒（300413）：剧集投入加大影响短期利润率及现金流，看好份额提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its investment in drama series, which is expected to impact short-term profit margins and cash flow, but is anticipated to enhance market share [6] - The company's 2024 revenue is projected at 14.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.364 billion yuan, down 61.6% year-on-year [6] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 2.9 billion yuan, a 12.8% decline year-on-year, and a net profit of 379 million yuan, down 19.8% year-on-year [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 14,080 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.8% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is forecasted to be 1,821 million yuan, reflecting a 33.5% increase from the previous year [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 29% in 2024 to 32.3% by 2027 [5] - The company plans to increase its drama investment, with a projected 57 billion yuan in new amortization for film and television copyrights in 2024, a 13% increase year-on-year [6] - The target price for 2025 is set at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30x, indicating a potential upside of 27% from the closing price on April 28, 2025 [6]