Xingfa Chem(SH:600141) HTSC·2025-04-29 04:15Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 7.2 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 310 million RMB, down 19% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in the prices of most main products [1][2] - The report highlights that the prices of fertilizers and pesticides have decreased, impacting profitability, while the organic silicon segment showed a 19% increase in sales volume but a 12% drop in average price [2][3] - New projects are progressing steadily, which is expected to strengthen the company's integrated and scale advantages, contributing to its competitive edge in high-value products [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, fertilizer sales volume increased by 6% to 306,000 tons, but revenue decreased by 2% to 870 million RMB, with average prices down 8% to 2,900 RMB/ton [2] - The pesticide segment saw a 3% increase in sales volume to 60,000 tons, with revenue also down 2% to 1.2 billion RMB, and average prices fell by 5% to 20,000 RMB/ton [2] - The organic silicon segment's sales volume rose by 19% to 60,000 tons, but average prices dropped by 12% to 10,000 RMB/ton, leading to a revenue increase of 5% to 620 million RMB [2] - The overall gross margin for the quarter decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 12.9% [2] Industry Outlook - The phosphorous chemical industry chain remains relatively prosperous, with phosphorous ore prices at 1,020 RMB/ton, and prices for monoammonium and diammonium phosphate up 7% since the beginning of the year [3] - Prices for glyphosate and organic silicon DMC have decreased by 2% and 8% respectively, indicating weak downstream demand and a need for time to digest new industry capacity [3] Future Projections - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 1.63 billion RMB, 1.86 billion RMB, and 2.17 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.48, 1.69, and 1.96 RMB [5] - The target price for the company is set at 23.68 RMB, based on a 16x PE ratio for 2025 [5][9]