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香飘飘:2024年年报与25年一季报点评冲泡业务短期承压,期待即饮后续表现-20250429

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 9.3% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue reaching 3.287 billion yuan, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 253 million yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year [4][5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant revenue drop of 20.0% year-on-year, totaling 580 million yuan, with a net loss of 18.77 million yuan [4][5] - The company’s instant drink segment showed resilience with an 8.0% revenue increase, while the brewed product segment faced a 15.42% decline due to external market pressures [5][6] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In 2024, the brewed business generated 2.271 billion yuan, down 15.42% year-on-year, while the instant drink business achieved 973 million yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year [5] - The company’s revenue from the e-commerce channel decreased by 25.42% to 186 million yuan, while direct sales increased by 22.8% to 77.61 million yuan [5] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 was 38.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material prices [6] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.7%, remaining stable year-on-year, while the first quarter of 2025 saw a decline to -3.2% [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on the performance of its brewed products and the expansion of its instant drink channels, particularly in schools and restaurants [7] - New product launches in the instant drink segment are anticipated to drive growth, with a focus on optimizing product offerings and packaging [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, projecting net profits of 267 million yuan and 305 million yuan, respectively [8]