YTO(SH:600233) HTSC·2025-04-29 05:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 17.89 RMB [6][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 69.03 billion RMB and a net profit of 4.01 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.7% and 7.8% respectively. The express delivery business contributed 62.29 billion RMB to revenue and 4.31 billion RMB to net profit, with growth rates of 19.2% and 12.2% respectively [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 17.06 billion RMB and a net profit of 860 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.6% in revenue but a decline of 9.2% in net profit [1]. - The company is expected to face continued pressure on profitability due to increased competition and a higher proportion of low-priced deliveries, which has led to a decrease in average revenue per package [1][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s package volume grew by 25.3% in 2024, outperforming the industry growth rate of 21.5%. The average price per package decreased by 4.9% to 2.30 RMB, which is better than the industry average decline of 6.3% [2]. - The single-package cost decreased by 4.0% to 2.09 RMB, with transportation costs down by 9.4% to 0.42 RMB. However, the single-package gross profit fell by 12.6% to 0.20 RMB due to intense industry competition [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised down by 16% to 4.42 billion RMB and 5.07 billion RMB respectively. A new forecast for 2027 is set at 5.72 billion RMB, with corresponding EPS of 1.28 RMB, 1.47 RMB, and 1.66 RMB [3]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 14.0x for 2025, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 12.5x, reflecting the company's superior management and service quality [3]. Financial Metrics - The projected revenue for 2025 is 77.13 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 11.73%. The net profit is expected to reach 4.42 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 10.17% [5][21]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 45.12 billion RMB, with a closing price of 13.09 RMB as of April 28 [7].