SAILUN GROUP(SH:601058) HTSC·2025-04-29 05:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.44 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.8 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.1 billion RMB, with a year-over-year increase of 31% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 8.4 billion RMB, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 15%, and a net profit of 1 billion RMB, slightly below expectations due to high raw material costs [1]. - The company plans to implement a mid-term dividend in 2025 and has announced a share buyback plan of 500-1,000 million RMB by its controlling shareholders [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved tire sales of 72.16 million units, a 29% increase year-over-year. The average price per tire decreased by 4% to 423 RMB, while the gross margin remained stable at 27.58% [2]. - For Q1 2025, tire sales reached 19.37 million units, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17% and a year-over-year increase of 6%. The overall gross margin was 24.7%, impacted by product mix adjustments and high raw material costs [3]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from new production capacity and recovering overseas market demand, which will help achieve record sales in 2024 [2]. - Despite short-term uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs, the company is positioned for long-term growth due to its competitive pricing and diversified production bases [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 14% and 16% to 4.5 billion RMB and 5 billion RMB, respectively. The projected net profit for 2027 is 6.3 billion RMB, with year-over-year growth rates of 11%, 10%, and 27% for 2025-2027 [5]. - The company is valued at a 12x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting its overseas expansion advantages and brand strength [5].