宏川智慧：石化仓储需求偏弱，拖累盈利-20250429

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 9.70 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.45 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.3% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 158.33 million RMB, down 46.6% year-on-year, which is below expectations [1][4]. - The decline in profitability is primarily due to weak demand in the downstream petrochemical industry, leading to lower rental rates and occupancy for storage tanks and chemical warehouses [1][2]. - Despite the weak demand, the company is expected to see a slight improvement in profitability in 2025 due to new project launches, although overall petrochemical storage demand is anticipated to remain weak [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit of 720 million RMB, a decline of 19.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 49.6%, down 8.0 percentage points [2]. - The gross profit for the fourth quarter of 2024 was 170 million RMB, with a gross margin of 45.6% [2]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the gross profit was 140 million RMB, with a gross margin of 43.9% [2]. Business Segments - The revenue from terminal tank services in 2024 was 1.27 billion RMB, down 7.5% year-on-year, accounting for 87.2% of total revenue, with a gross profit of 620 million RMB, down 21.1% [3]. - The chemical warehouse services generated revenue of 81.88 million RMB, a slight decrease of 1.8%, but the gross profit increased by 7.3% to 42.41 million RMB, attributed to new projects [3]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 47% and 38% respectively, with the new net profit estimates set at 175.31 million RMB for 2025 and 255.13 million RMB for 2026 [4][6]. - The target price has been adjusted down by 18% to 9.70 RMB, reflecting the weak demand in the petrochemical storage industry [4][8].