YTO(SH:600233) HTSC·2025-04-29 07:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 17.89 RMB [6][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 69.03 billion RMB and a net profit of 4.01 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.7% and 7.8% respectively. The express delivery business contributed 62.29 billion RMB to revenue and 4.31 billion RMB to net profit, with growth rates of 19.2% and 12.2% [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 17.06 billion RMB and a net profit of 860 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.6% in revenue but a decline of 9.2% in net profit [1][2]. - The company is expected to face continued pressure on profitability due to increased competition and a higher proportion of low-priced deliveries, which has led to a decrease in average revenue per package [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company handled 26.57 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, outperforming the industry growth rate of 21.5% by 3.8 percentage points. The average price per package decreased by 4.9% to 2.30 RMB, which is better than the industry average decline of 6.3% [2]. - The company's single-package cost decreased by 4.0% to 2.09 RMB, with transportation costs down by 9.4% to 0.42 RMB. However, the single-package gross profit fell by 12.6% to 0.20 RMB due to intense industry competition and declining revenue per package [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised down by 16% to 4.42 billion RMB and 5.07 billion RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 5.72 billion RMB. The corresponding EPS estimates are 1.28 RMB, 1.47 RMB, and 1.66 RMB [3]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 14.0x for 2025, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 12.5x, reflecting the company's superior management and service quality [3].