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华兰生物:血制品表现强劲,疫苗处于传统淡季-20250429

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience with revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025 despite challenges in the blood products industry, with revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items increasing by 10.2%, 19.6%, and 35.4% year-over-year, respectively [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased plasma collection and recovery in vaccine sales, leading to double-digit revenue growth in 2025 [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 8.7 billion RMB, net profit attributable to the parent of 3.1 billion RMB, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 3.0 billion RMB, reflecting year-over-year increases of 10.2%, 19.6%, and 35.4% respectively [1]. - The blood products segment saw revenue growth, with albumin revenue exceeding 3 billion RMB and immunoglobulin revenue surpassing 2 billion RMB [2]. Growth Drivers - The company’s plasma collection volume is projected to grow by 16% in 2025, supported by the addition of new plasma collection stations [2]. - Vaccine sales are expected to recover in 2025 as the market normalizes and competition stabilizes, following a seasonal decline in Q1 2025 [2]. Product Pipeline - The company has several products in development, including high-concentration immunoglobulin and various vaccines, with significant progress in clinical trials [4]. - The approval of biosimilars such as Bevacizumab and Rituximab is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth in the coming years [3]. Valuation and Forecast - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 13.7 billion RMB, 17.1 billion RMB, and 20.5 billion RMB respectively, with a target price set at 19.40 RMB based on a 26x PE ratio for 2025 [5][9].