顾家家居：减值拖累24年盈利，25Q1开局亮眼-20250429

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 18.48 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.42 billion RMB, down 29.4% year-on-year, primarily due to asset and credit impairment losses of 306 million RMB [1] - The first quarter of 2025 showed strong performance with revenue of 4.91 billion RMB, up 12.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 520 million RMB, up 23.5% year-on-year, driven by growth in both domestic and foreign trade [1] - The company expects a recovery in demand due to the implementation of domestic real estate and trade-in policies, which will support domestic sales performance [1][2] - The company is focusing on enhancing shareholder returns, achieving a dividend payout ratio of 80.06% in 2024 [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company slightly adjusted its revenue forecast for domestic business for 2025-2026, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 1.88 billion RMB, 2.08 billion RMB, and 2.29 billion RMB respectively [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.28 RMB, 2.53 RMB, and 2.79 RMB respectively [4] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 32.7%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decline in the proportion of high-margin domestic business and increased end-user discounts [3] - The report indicates a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14 times for 2025, with a target price set at 31.92 RMB [4][8]