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江苏银行(600919):2025年一季报点评:质效并举,单季盈利、不良率达历史最优

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Jiangsu Bank, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [2][21]. Core Views - Jiangsu Bank reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with operating income of CNY 22.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 9.78 billion, up 8.16% year-on-year. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improved to 0.86%, a decrease of 3 basis points from the beginning of the year, while the provision coverage ratio stood at 343.51%, down 6.59 percentage points from the start of the year [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Operating Income and Profit: - 2025 Q1 operating income reached CNY 22.3 billion, a 6.21% increase year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 9.78 billion, reflecting an 8.16% year-on-year growth [1][5]. - Key Financial Metrics: - Total revenue projections for 2024-2027 are CNY 80.82 billion, CNY 86.83 billion, CNY 95.22 billion, and CNY 102.60 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.80%, 7.44%, 9.67%, and 7.75% [1][6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from CNY 31.84 billion in 2024 to CNY 39.80 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 10.80%, 7.40%, 7.96%, and 7.80% [1][6]. - Asset Quality: - The NPL ratio is projected to remain stable at 0.89% from 2024 to 2027, while the provision coverage ratio is expected to decline from 351% in 2024 to 170% in 2027 [8][10]. - Market Position: - Jiangsu Bank's total assets reached CNY 4.46 trillion by the end of Q1 2025, a 12.84% increase from the beginning of the year, with total loans of CNY 2.26 trillion and deposits of CNY 2.42 trillion, reflecting growth rates of 7.96% and 14.18% respectively [5][6]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that Jiangsu Bank's governance is stable, with clear strategic planning and robust operational metrics. The bank's asset quality remains strong, and the current dividend yield is attractive. The target price for 2025 is set at CNY 11.66, based on a projected price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.85x [2][5].