隆平高科：25Q1业绩承压，关注新销售季表现-20250429

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 11.34 [7][8]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 7.13% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue of RMB 8.566 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.14 billion, down 43.08% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant revenue drop of 32% year-on-year, resulting in a net loss of RMB 0.02 billion [1][2][3]. - Despite the current challenges, the company is expected to benefit from a rebound in domestic corn prices due to supply-demand imbalances and its strong research and development capabilities, particularly in transgenic corn [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 50 billion from corn seeds, down 17% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 34.6%, a decrease of 5.4 percentage points. In contrast, hybrid rice revenue was RMB 20 billion, up 13% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 37.6%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of RMB 14.1 billion, a 32% decline year-on-year, and a net profit of -RMB 0.02 billion, indicating a shift to loss compared to the previous year [1][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downwards due to intense competition in corn seed varieties. The expected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 2.1 billion and RMB 4.3 billion, respectively, down from previous estimates of RMB 9.0 billion and RMB 12.0 billion [4][6]. - The report estimates a target price of RMB 11.34 based on a price-to-book ratio of 3.0 times for 2025, reflecting the company's strong R&D advantages and market position [4][8].