YUTO TECH.(SZ:002831) HTSC·2025-04-29 07:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 29.28 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, achieving 17.157 billion RMB in revenue for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.409 billion RMB, down 2.1% year-on-year, which was below previous expectations [1][4]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the premium paper packaging industry, with ongoing improvements in overseas capacity and market expansion, supported by intelligent manufacturing capabilities [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the revenue from premium paper packaging reached 12.42 billion RMB, up 12.5% year-on-year, driven by recovering demand in downstream consumer electronics [2]. - Domestic revenue for 2024 was 12.06 billion RMB, a 4.9% increase year-on-year, while international revenue was 5.1 billion RMB, up 36.8% year-on-year, indicating strong overseas performance [2]. Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 was 24.8%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in the business structure [3]. - The overall expense ratio decreased by 0.43 percentage points to 13.44%, with the financial expense ratio declining to -0.19% due to lower loan interest rates and increased exchange gains [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 1.707 billion RMB, 1.957 billion RMB, and 2.222 billion RMB respectively, with a corresponding EPS of 1.83 RMB, 2.10 RMB, and 2.39 RMB [4][6]. - The target price is based on a 16x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's ongoing global and intelligent production layout [4].