ETS(002545) 国海证券·2025-04-29 08:37Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][11]. Core Views - The company has significantly increased its potassium chloride production and sales, with a focus on expanding its potassium and phosphate mineral resources [5][10]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.196 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.97% to 564 million yuan [4][6]. - The report highlights the robust performance of the steel structure manufacturing segment and the substantial growth in potassium chloride production and sales [5][10]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.196 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.79% [4][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 564 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 10.97% compared to the previous year [4][6]. - The sales gross margin was 27.38%, showing a slight increase of 0.18 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.42%, down by 2.41 percentage points [4][6]. - The potassium chloride segment achieved a revenue of 2.464 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.31%, despite a decrease in gross margin by 5.19 percentage points to 40.40% [6][10]. Market Outlook - The global potassium fertilizer market is expected to remain tight, with prices showing an upward trend due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [9][10]. - The average price of potassium chloride in Q1 2025 was 2,881 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 353 yuan per ton [9][15]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing high demand for potassium fertilizers, with plans to increase its production capacity to 3 million tons in the medium term [10][11]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.724 billion yuan, 4.945 billion yuan, and 5.177 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [11][39]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to 925 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 64% [11][39]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 10 for 2025, decreasing to 9 by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [11][39].