卓胜微：毛利率受折旧影响进一步下降-20250429

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 93.4 RMB [7][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 756 million RMB in Q1 2025, a year-over-year decline of 36.47% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 32.49%. The net loss attributable to shareholders was 47 million RMB, a year-over-year decline of 123.57% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 97.62% [1][2]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to weak demand in the mobile phone market and a high base effect from the previous year. The depreciation from the ramp-up of the 12-inch production line has significantly impacted the gross margin, leading to losses for two consecutive quarters [1][2]. - The company is expected to see a gradual increase in revenue throughout 2025, particularly in the second half of the year, as new products like L-PAMID begin to contribute to sales [1][3]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Review - The gross margin decreased to 31.0%, down 11.8 percentage points year-over-year and 5.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to production line depreciation and intense market price competition [2]. - R&D expenses decreased to 178 million RMB, a year-over-year decline of 33.9% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 27.3% [2]. - The company's inventory stood at 2.517 billion RMB, remaining stable compared to the end of 2024, indicating a healthy inventory level [2]. 2025 Outlook - The company's performance is expected to show a trend of lower results in the first half and higher results in the second half of 2025, with an anticipated double-digit revenue growth for the year [3]. - Key products such as the first-generation self-produced RF switches and low-noise amplifiers have entered mass production, and the second-generation technology is under development, which will help strengthen market competitiveness [3]. - The WiFi7 module products are progressing well in client mass production, and revenue from the first-generation L-PAMID products is expected to increase in the second half of 2025 [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 436 million RMB, 913 million RMB, and 1.391 billion RMB respectively, with a target price based on a 10x price-to-sales ratio for 2025 [4][6].