Hoshine Silicon(603260) 东北证券·2025-04-29 08:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on profitability due to low prices in the industrial silicon and organic silicon markets, with a projected revenue of 26.692 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.41% year-on-year, but a significant decline in net profit by 33.64% to 1.740 billion yuan [1][3]. - The industrial silicon sector shows strong production and sales performance, with a production increase of over 25% to 4.71 million tons in 2024, despite low pricing, which has decreased by 16.36% year-on-year to an average selling price of 11,174 yuan per ton [2]. - The organic silicon market is stabilizing, with demand supported by sectors like new energy and home appliances, while the supply side is expected to improve as new capacity releases slow down [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 26.692 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.740 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 33.64% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 5.228 billion yuan, down 3.47% year-on-year, and a net profit of 260 million yuan, a decrease of 50.81% year-on-year [1]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is characterized by increased production and sales, with a total output of 471,000 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 25% [2]. - Exports of industrial silicon rose by 27% to 720,000 tons, driven by recovering overseas demand [2]. - The average selling price for industrial silicon has decreased significantly, impacting overall profitability [2]. Organic Silicon - The organic silicon sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics as new capacity additions slow down, despite current pricing pressures leading to losses in the industry [3]. - Demand remains stable, particularly in the new energy and home appliance sectors, although the real estate sector shows weakness [3]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 projected at 1.744 billion, 2.394 billion, and 3.284 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a recovery trend [3].