GUJING(000596) 东方证券·2025-04-29 08:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 245.86 CNY for 2025, based on a 19x PE ratio [4][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 23.58 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.52 billion CNY, up 20.2% year-on-year [9]. - The core driver of revenue growth is the "Year Original" series, which generated 18.09 billion CNY in revenue, with sales volume and price per ton increasing by 12% and 5% respectively [9]. - The company has seen a solid performance in its main market, with revenue from the Central China region reaching 20.15 billion CNY, a growth of 17.8% year-on-year [9]. Financial Summary - The company’s financial projections for 2025-2027 indicate an EPS of 12.94 CNY, 15.16 CNY, and 17.43 CNY respectively, with a downward adjustment from previous estimates [10]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 79.9%, with a slight increase from the previous year, driven by product mix upgrades [9]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve to 25.0% by 2025, reflecting ongoing enhancements in profitability [3][9]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates revenues of 27.36 billion CNY in 2025, 31.15 billion CNY in 2026, and 35.03 billion CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of 16.0%, 13.8%, and 12.5% [3]. - Operating profit is projected to reach 9.38 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21.0% [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has expanded its distributor network to 5,089, with a notable increase in Central China, indicating a strategy focused on regional market penetration [9]. - The product structure continues to upgrade, with a significant contribution from mid-to-high-end products, enhancing overall profitability [9].