苏博特：24营收显韧性，1Q盈利修复进行时-20250429

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 9.50 [7][8]. Core Views - The company demonstrated revenue resilience with a slight year-over-year decline of 0.75% in 2024, achieving revenue of RMB 3.555 billion. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 40.24% to RMB 95.88 million, primarily due to higher impairment losses than previously expected [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure investment and the acceleration of special bond issuance, which may enhance product demand and improve profitability [4][6]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported revenues from high-performance water reducers, efficient water reducers, functional materials, and testing services of RMB 18.6 billion, RMB 0.5 billion, RMB 6.7 billion, and RMB 7.6 billion, respectively, reflecting year-over-year changes of -8.8%, -52.0%, +29.5%, and +0.8% [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 32.79%, a decrease of 2.33 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to a decline in capacity utilization [2][3]. Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company maintained good control over operating expenses, with a total expense ratio of 25.20% in 2024, down 1.28 percentage points year-over-year. The net cash inflow from operating activities was RMB 580.69 million, an increase of 57.0% year-over-year [3][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of RMB 96 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 111.5% [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is adjusted to RMB 160 million, RMB 210 million, and RMB 240 million, respectively, reflecting an upward revision of 10% and 6% for 2025 and 2026 [4][6]. - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25 times for 2025, with a target price of RMB 9.50, indicating a potential upside from the current market price [4][8].