苏博特所属申万行业为：基础化工-化学制品-其他化学制品。所属概念板块包括：房屋检测、水电概 念、雅下电站概念、水利建设、西部开发等。 9月10日，苏博特盘中上涨2.01%，截至14:18，报11.15元/股，成交5466.08万元，换手率1.19%，总市值 47.53亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出119.86万元，大单买入273.13万元，占比5.00%，卖出392.99万元，占比 7.19%。 苏博特今年以来股价涨51.49%，近5个交易日涨3.53%，近20日跌0.09%，近60日涨25.85%。 今年以来苏博特已经3次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为7月25日，当日龙虎榜净买入-5396.97万 元；买入总计6065.22万元 ，占总成交额比5.81%；卖出总计1.15亿元 ，占总成交额比10.97%。 资料显示，江苏苏博特新材料股份有限公司位于江苏省南京市江宁区淳化街道醴泉路118号，成立日期 2004年12月15日，上市日期2017年11月10日，公司主营业务涉及混凝土外加剂的研发、生产和销售。主 营业务收入构成为：高性能减水剂51.83%，功能性材料20.74%，技术服务20.21%，其他5 ...

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 9 月 8 日 603916.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 10.86 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 48.8 (3.7) 23.0 57.8 相对上证综指 31.9 (9.1) 10.3 21.1 发行股数 (百万) 426.30 流通股 (百万) 420.33 总市值 (人民币 百万) 4,629.57 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 138.58 (7%) 16% 38% 61% 83% 106% Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 苏博特 上证综指 主要股东 江苏博特新材料有限公司 37.72% 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 9 月 5 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《苏博特》20240909 《苏博特》20231102 《苏博特》20230828 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Recent surge in gold prices, with London gold reaching nearly $3580 per ounce on September 3, 2025, after a four-month period of high volatility [12][10] - Under neutral assumptions, the gold price midpoint for the second half of the year is projected at $3627 per ounce, with an optimistic scenario suggesting a rise to $3816 per ounce [12][10] - Key drivers for the recent price increase include a shift in investment from long-term US and European bonds to gold due to concerns over debt risks, particularly in Europe [12][11] Group 2: International Beauty Market Trends - The global beauty market is expected to grow at a rate of 4.5% in 2024, down from 8% in 2023, with significant regional disparities [13][13] - The European market outperformed the global average with a 7.5% year-on-year growth, while the North Asia market saw a decline of 2% [13][13] - Major international beauty brands are adapting to the competitive landscape in China by embracing new online channels and local partnerships, leading to a slight recovery in market performance [13][13] Group 3: Fourth Paradigm Company Overview - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 68.52 billion, 88.19 billion, and 112.26 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 29%, and 27% respectively [17][17] - The company is expected to turn a profit by 2025, with net profits forecasted at 0.55 billion, 2.83 billion, and 5.68 billion yuan for the same period [17][17] - The company's strategy focuses on standardization, which is anticipated to drive rapid industry expansion and maintain long-term competitiveness [14][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit recovery is increasingly certain, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 7.0% in the first half of 2025 and a net profit increase of 18.7% [7] - The company has a strong technical and research capability, supported by national-level laboratories and recognized engineering teams, which enhances its competitive edge in major infrastructure projects [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 223 million, 287 million, and 344 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 21, 16, and 13 times [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to be 3,911 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.0% [6] - The company’s net profit for 2025 is estimated at 223 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from a previous decline [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 31.7% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 5.1% [6] Company Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7% and a net profit of 0.39 billion yuan, up 20.9% year-on-year [7] - The company’s main products showed a trend of increasing volume but decreasing prices, particularly in functional materials, which have become a significant growth driver [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in real estate transactions, with a 33% increase in average transaction area in 30 major cities compared to the previous two weeks, although still lower than historical levels [10] - Manufacturing PMI shows a slight recovery but remains below seasonal expectations, with a production index increase of 0.3 percentage points to 50.8% [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural growth over overall economic recovery, focusing on high-growth sectors such as technology manufacturing and consumer goods [19][21] Macro Economic Overview - Real estate transactions are showing signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in new housing sales compared to previous years [10] - Industrial production remains at a historically high level but has shown marginal decline recently, particularly in the chemical and automotive sectors [7][8] - The demand side for construction materials has turned negative year-on-year, with a notable drop in steel and building materials demand [8] Industry Performance - The report identifies the top-performing sectors, with telecommunications leading at a 5.22% increase, followed by comprehensive and non-ferrous metals sectors [3] - Conversely, the non-bank financial sector and banks have shown declines of -1.28% and -1.03% respectively, indicating potential weaknesses in these areas [4] - The report suggests that sectors like technology manufacturing and consumer goods are experiencing high growth, while real estate and construction are in a bottoming phase [22] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors with high growth potential, particularly in technology manufacturing and consumer goods, while being cautious of sectors like real estate that are still recovering [19][22] - It highlights the importance of identifying industries with improving profit margins and those that are in a recovery phase, such as power equipment and defense [22] Company Updates - Companies like Yongtai Energy and Sanofi are noted for their positive performance, with significant growth contributions and share buybacks [5] - The report also mentions the potential of companies involved in vocational education and eSIM technology, indicating a shift towards international collaboration and domestic production capabilities [39][44]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its performance, with a revenue of 1.673 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.03%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 63 million yuan, up 18.68% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in downstream demand, particularly as a leading producer of water-reducing agents, with forecasts for net profits of 153 million, 204 million, and 244 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The company has expanded its product offerings and increased its market competitiveness, particularly in the functional materials segment, which saw a revenue growth of over 25% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [6][7] Financial Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 999 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.70% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.45%, with a net profit of 39 million yuan, up 20.86% year-on-year and 59.97% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The company's high-performance water-reducing agents and functional materials segments showed strong sales growth, with respective sales volumes of 306,000 tons and 107,900 tons in Q2 2025 [6] - The financial projections indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected revenues of 3.839 billion, 4.247 billion, and 4.963 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its presence in the domestic infrastructure market, particularly in major projects in the western regions, and has achieved notable results in sectors such as hydropower, nuclear power, and railways [7] - The company has also established new subsidiaries in overseas markets including the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, enhancing its international business footprint [7]

Group 1: Macro Insights - August PMI for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors showed a slight recovery, but manufacturing PMI remains in contraction territory [9] - Supply and demand both improved, with supply rebounding more significantly, driven by the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors [9] - The price index continued to rebound, indicating a narrowing decline in PPI, while inventory trends showed divergence [9] Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - In H1 2025, listed banks reported a revenue growth of 1.0% and a net profit growth of 0.8%, both turning positive compared to Q1 2025 [32] - Different types of banks showed varied performance, with state-owned banks improving significantly due to increased asset growth [32] - The overall banking sector is expected to benefit from expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth [34] Group 3: White Wine Industry Analysis - The white wine sector reported a revenue of 2414.2 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 0.8%, with net profit at 946.3 billion yuan, down 1.2% [28] - High-end and sub-high-end wines showed resilience, while regional wines faced significant declines [28] - The industry is undergoing a supply-side adjustment, with companies focusing on destocking and maintaining prices [30] Group 4: Energy Sector Developments - The energy sector is expected to experience a shift towards marketization, with significant growth in renewable energy installations [38] - The anticipated changes in electricity pricing are expected to reverse current pessimistic market expectations [38] - Companies with resilient earnings in the energy sector, such as Baoneng Energy and Huaneng International, are recommended for investment [38] Group 5: Home Appliance Industry Insights - The home appliance sector is witnessing a mixed performance, with companies like Midea Group maintaining stable profitability despite short-term pressures from tariffs [3][5] - The market for shared massage services is growing, with leading companies like LeMoba showing strong revenue and profit growth [25] - The overall home appliance market is characterized by competitive pressures and the need for companies to innovate and expand their service offerings [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its stock performance [6]. Core Views - The company has shown a continuous improvement in profit margins, with functional materials maintaining high growth rates. The revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 63 million yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is a leader in the water-reducing agent industry, with strong technical capabilities and high customer recognition. It is involved in numerous key engineering projects, which supports its revenue growth [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 990 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 390 million yuan, up 20.9% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 34.7%, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 5.9%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s revenue from high-performance water-reducing agents was 870 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a gross margin of 30.1% [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Functional materials generated revenue of 350 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a robust growth of 25.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 33.8% [2]. - Technical services revenue decreased by 7.6% year-on-year to 340 million yuan, with a gross margin of 53.9% [2]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.8 billion yuan, 4.26 billion yuan, and 4.67 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a projected net profit of 159 million yuan, 204 million yuan, and 245 million yuan for the same years [4][5]. - The anticipated growth rate for net profit over the next three years is 24.1%, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30X, 23X, and 19X [4].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.673 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 63 million yuan, up 18.68% year-on-year [1] - In Q2, the company achieved a revenue of 991 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 20.86% year-on-year [2] Operational Analysis - The recovery in infrastructure projects has significantly boosted the company's production and sales volumes, leveraging its long-cycle experience in infrastructure projects and maintaining a leading position in product layout and technology [3] - The company has intensified efforts in major projects in the western region, expanding in hydropower, nuclear power, and railways, with participation in significant projects such as the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and the Yangtze River Tunnel [3] - Sales of the company's third-generation water-reducing agents and functional materials increased by 2% and 31% year-on-year, respectively, marking a continuous recovery over two consecutive quarters [3] - The company has improved its equipment utilization efficiency and slightly reduced raw material costs, leading to a modest increase in profitability [4] Financial Performance - In Q2, the price of the main raw material, ethylene oxide, saw a slight decrease, while the prices of high-performance water-reducing agents remained relatively stable, contributing to a gross margin of approximately 35.51%, an increase of nearly 2 percentage points from Q1 [4] - The company slightly increased its sales expenses in Q2 and revised its 2025 profit forecast down by 19%, projecting revenues of 3.625 billion, 4.014 billion, and 4.378 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 154 million, 200 million, and 262 million yuan respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 31, 24, and 18 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [5]

Core Viewpoint - Suobote (603916) reported a revenue increase of 7.03% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, with a net profit growth of 18.68% [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.673 billion yuan, compared to 1.563 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, marking a 7.03% increase [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.2454 million yuan, up 18.68% from 53.2885 million yuan in 2024 [1] - The second quarter revenue was 999.1 million yuan, a 0.7% increase year-on-year, while net profit for the quarter was 38.9171 million yuan, reflecting a 20.86% increase [1] - Gross margin stood at 34.75%, a slight decrease of 0.34% year-on-year, while net margin decreased by 7.79% to 5.88% [1] - Total expenses (selling, administrative, and financial) amounted to 375 million yuan, accounting for 22.4% of revenue, down 3.38% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share increased by 25% to 0.15 yuan, while operating cash flow per share was -0.08 yuan, a significant decrease of 147.54% [1] Debt and Receivables - The company has a significant amount of accounts receivable, with the ratio of accounts receivable to net profit reaching 2805.59% [1][2] - Interest-bearing liabilities increased by 24.68% to 2.493 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 29.78% [2] Business Model and Cash Flow - The company's performance is primarily driven by research and marketing efforts, necessitating a closer examination of the underlying factors [2] - Cash flow metrics indicate that cash and cash equivalents to current liabilities ratio is 74.58%, and the average operating cash flow over the past three years to current liabilities ratio is 17.45% [2] Market Position - The company is held by a prominent fund manager, Yang Gu from Nuoan Fund, who has recently increased his stake, indicating confidence in the company's potential [3]