国泰集团（603977）：民爆业务彰显韧性，扣非归母净利润增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's civil explosives business demonstrates resilience, with a growth in net profit excluding non-recurring items [6] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit after excluding non-recurring items, indicating stable performance [8] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 483 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.26%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 43.08 million yuan, down 8.23% year-on-year [8] - The civil explosives business revenue reached 327 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.40%, with the explosive products revenue at 213 million yuan, down 4.78% [8] - The production of packaged explosives increased by 12.17% year-on-year, while electronic detonators saw a production decrease of 20.27% [8] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 32.72%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 318 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 75.86% in 2026 and 42.41% in 2027 [7][9] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 24.66 for 2023, decreasing to 12.86 by 2027 [7][9]