华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 22 日│中国内地 行业周报（第十二周） 本周观点：人工智能加速军事"杀伤链" 证券研究报告 航天军工 人工智能加速军事"杀伤链" 美以伊冲突中，人工智能加速了军事"杀伤链"。《Iran war shows how AI speeds up military "kill chains"》（2026 年 3 月 17 日，Craig Jones 和 Helen M. Kinsella）将美以伊冲突描述为"第一场人工智能战争"。Anthropic 的人工智能模型或被用于美以对伊朗的打击。Palantir 开发的 Maven 智能系 统使得从情报到打击的时间线从数小时缩短至数分钟。 美军加快 OODA 环闭合取得显著成效。海湾战争中，美军 OODA 环闭合时 间为 80-101 分钟，科索沃战争中为 30-45 分钟，而阿富汗战争中其 OODA 环闭合时间缩短至 15-19 分钟，伊拉克战争中闭合时间仅为 10 分钟左右， 在 2020 年-2022 年的历次"融合工程"演习项目中，基于人工智能技术， 其 OODA 环闭合时间最短可缩短至 20s。 中长期观点：关注新装备建设周期下的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as AVIC Optoelectronics, Guotai Group, Beihua Co., National Science Military Industry, Aerospace Electric, and a "Hold" rating for Shangda Co. and Aero Engine Corporation [3][8]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a transition from scale expansion to "high-quality advancement" in equipment construction, focusing on the integration of development and security [1][11]. - The military modernization during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to shift from quantity to quality, with significant structural opportunities emerging in new domains, unmanned intelligence, advanced weaponry, and low-cost equipment [2][11]. - The plan highlights the cultivation of emerging industries, particularly in low-altitude economy, aerospace, and marine economy, forming a comprehensive industrial layout [12]. Summary by Sections Key Companies - Recommended companies include AVIC Optoelectronics (002179 CH), Guotai Group (603977 CH), Beihua Co. (002246 CH), National Science Military Industry (688543 CH), Aerospace Electric (002025 CH), Shangda Co. (301522 CH), and Aero Engine Corporation (600893 CH) [3][8]. Industry Trends - The report indicates a notable increase in defense spending, with a projected budget of 1.94 trillion yuan for 2026, reflecting a 6.9% increase from the previous year [15]. - The military industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for advanced military equipment and modernization efforts [11][15]. Market Performance - The report notes that the defense and military industry index has underperformed, with a decline of 6.64% in the past week, ranking last among 31 primary industries [22]. - The current PE (TTM) for the defense and military sector is 90.65 times, with specific segments like aerospace equipment and military electronics showing varying valuations [26][30]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates significant growth in the demand for new military products and markets, particularly in unmanned systems and advanced weaponry, aligning with the strategic goals outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][12]. - The focus on high-quality development and modernization is expected to create a favorable environment for investment in the military sector [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the defense industry, including AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, Guorui Technology, Ruichuang Micro-Nano, Western Superconducting Technologies, Aerospace Intelligence Manufacturing, Guotai Group, and North Navigation [8][40]. Core Insights - In 2026, China's defense budget is set at 1,909.561 billion RMB, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase, slightly down from 7.2% in 2025. This growth is consistent with the principle of "moderate" increase in defense spending [11][12]. - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran is expected to drive demand for military trade, particularly in missile and drone technologies, enhancing the international military trade market's activity [11][13]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to shift the focus from quantity to quality in military modernization, with significant structural opportunities emerging in new domains, unmanned systems, advanced weaponry, and low-cost equipment [16][17]. Summary by Sections Defense Budget - The defense budget for 2026 is projected at 1,909.561 billion RMB, with a 7% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a stable growth trend [11][12]. - The report emphasizes that the growth rate is in line with the "moderate" principle, balancing national defense needs with economic development [11]. Military Trade Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for increased overseas demand for military equipment, as China is one of the few suppliers capable of providing comprehensive solutions [13][19]. - The international military trade market is expected to remain active, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased defense spending globally [11][19]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, Guorui Technology, Ruichuang Micro-Nano, Western Superconducting Technologies, Aerospace Intelligence Manufacturing, Guotai Group, and North Navigation, all rated as "Buy" [8][40]. - The report suggests that these companies are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in military trade and modernization efforts [19][20]. Emerging Trends - The report identifies significant opportunities in new equipment construction, particularly in unmanned systems and advanced weaponry, as part of the military modernization strategy [16][18]. - The focus on military-civilian integration is expected to create new market spaces in commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, and nuclear energy [20].

证券代码：603977 证券简称：国泰集团 编号：2026 临 002 号 江西国泰集团股份有限公司 第六届董事会第二十三次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证公告内容不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实、准确和完整承担个别及连带责任。 表决结果：同意 7 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票。 根据《公司法》《公司章程》相关规定，经实际控制人江西省国有资产监督 管理委员会提名、公司董事会提名委员会资格审查，公司董事会同意选举洪余和 先生为公司董事长，任期与公司第六届董事会任期一致。洪余和先生任职董事长 后，不再担任公司副董事长兼总经理职务。根据《公司章程》规定，公司的法定 代表人变更为洪余和先生。公司将尽快完成相关工商变更登记手续。 （二）审议通过了《关于修订<江西国泰集团股份有限公司财务管理制度> 的议案》 表决结果：同意 7 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票。 公司董事会同意对《江西国泰集团股份有限公司财务管理制度》进行修订。 特此公告。 江西国泰集团股份有限公司董事会 一、董事会会议召开情况 江西国泰集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第六届董事会第二十三次 会议于 2026 年 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the aerospace and military industry [8] Core Viewpoints - The recent military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have escalated security tensions, prompting a global increase in military spending. The report highlights that the world is entering a period of significant military conflict, with various regional conflicts ongoing, leading to heightened defense budgets in the US, EU, and Japan [19][20] - The report anticipates that China's military trade will experience rapid growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with an expected increase in market share [20][27] - The focus on new equipment construction cycles is expected to create structural opportunities in military demand, particularly in new domains, unmanned systems, advanced weapons, and low-cost equipment [23][24] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The aerospace and military industry is rated as "Increase" [8] Recent Developments - The US and Israel conducted coordinated military strikes against Iran, targeting military facilities and leadership, which is expected to have significant implications for regional security and military spending [11][12][14] Market Opportunities - The report suggests that military demand will see structural opportunities during the "14th Five-Year Plan," particularly in new domains and advanced technologies [23][24] - Companies to watch include: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, Guorui Technology, and Aerospace South Lake, among others [3][20] Company Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include: - AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760 CH) - Buy - Guorui Technology (600562 CH) - Buy - Ruichuang Micro-Nano (688002 CH) - Buy - Aerospace South Lake (688552 CH) - Buy - Aerospace Rainbow (002389 CH) - Buy - AVIC High-Tech (600862 CH) - Hold [8]

同时，国泰货运于 2026年1月的载货量较2025年同月增加5%，可用货物吨公里数按年增加 3%。据悉， 从大洋洲运往香港及亚洲其他主要城市的车厘子及海鲜显著推动"国泰—鲜货运送"的需求；而由欧洲及 中美洲出口的医药品增加带动"国泰—医药品运送"方案持续增长。国泰货运作为香港国际马术盛典的创 办伙伴，由欧洲运送了约60匹场地障碍赛精英骏马飞抵香港，充分展现在动物运送方面的专业能力。 此外，香港快运于2026年1月的载客量超71万人次，较 2025 年同月增加8%，可用座位公里数则增加 13%。其中，2月20日香港快运刷新一项新记录，首次单日接载超过30000名旅客。（编辑：许浩存 校 对：陈虹莹 审核：程凌） 《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者郭瑛 报道:记者从国泰集团2月27日公布的2026年1月份客、货运量数 据获悉，国泰航空和香港快运于1月合共接载超过330万人次，较2025年同月上升11%。同时，国泰货运 1月份的载货量逾13万吨，按年增长5%。 国泰顾客及商务总裁刘凯诗表示："国泰集团于2026年取得稳健开局，去年年末外游高峰的强健势头延 续至今年1月初，并于2月份持续向好。2026年2月14日，国泰 ...

Group 1 - The company has confirmed that the energetic materials production line 001 has completed linked trial runs and has partially started production [2] - The production line 003 is currently undergoing engineering design and site leveling work [2]

Core Insights - Cathay Group reported a year-on-year increase in both passenger and cargo operations for January 2026, with over 3.3 million passengers carried, representing an 11% growth [1][3] - Cathay Pacific carried 2.6223 million passengers in January, marking an increase of 11.5% year-on-year, while Hong Kong Express recorded over 717,600 passengers, up 7.6% [3] Passenger Operations - In January 2026, Cathay Pacific and Hong Kong Express together carried over 3.3 million passengers, reflecting an 11% increase compared to the same month last year [1][3] - Cathay Pacific's passenger count reached 2.6223 million, showing an 11.5% year-on-year growth, while Hong Kong Express's passenger volume exceeded 717,600, with a 7.6% increase [3] Cargo Operations - Cathay Group's cargo operations saw a total cargo volume exceeding 130,000 tons in January, which is a 5% increase year-on-year [1] Recent Trends - The positive trend in passenger growth continued into February, with Cathay Pacific achieving a record single-day passenger count of over 100,000 on February 14, 2026 [3] - On February 20, Hong Kong Express also reached a milestone by carrying over 30,000 passengers in a single day for the first time [3]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 2月24日，国泰集团在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司含能新材料生产线001线采 用先进技术设计建设，目前已完成联动试车，生产线已部分投料。含能新材料生产线003线正在进行工 程设计和场平工程。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Group is actively engaged in tantalum and niobium business through its subsidiaries, focusing on the wet metallurgy processing and sales of rare metals, with a significant market presence in various high-tech industries [2] Group 1: Company Operations - The company operates through its subsidiaries, Tuohong New Materials and Sanshi Nonferrous, specializing in the wet metallurgy of tantalum and niobium [2] - The products manufactured by the company cover mainstream tantalum and niobium wet metallurgy products in the market [2] - Tantalum and niobium compounds produced by the company are widely used in military aerospace, electronic information, semiconductors, superconductors, special steel, optical glass, and ternary batteries [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Recent changes in supply and demand dynamics, along with cost factors, have led to a rapid increase in tantalum and niobium product prices in the short term [2] - The company is committed to closely monitoring market trends and actively seizing industry opportunities [2] Group 3: Strategic Goals - The company aims to leverage its existing production capacity and technological advantages to continuously enhance product added value and core competitiveness [2] - The goal is to deliver stable and excellent operating performance to reward investors [2]