China Express(SZ:002928) Minsheng Securities·2025-04-29 09:32Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.7 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and a net profit of 270 million yuan, recovering from a net loss of 960 million yuan in the previous year [3][4]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 620 million yuan, 780 million yuan, and 1.06 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported an operating income of 6.7 billion yuan, with a net profit of 270 million yuan, compared to a net loss of 960 million yuan in the previous year [3]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw an operating income of 1.54 billion yuan, a 19% increase year-on-year, and a net loss of 40 million yuan, improving from a loss of 270 million yuan in the same quarter of the previous year [3][4]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported an operating income of 1.77 billion yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 82 million yuan [3]. Operational Insights - The company has seen a 33% year-on-year increase in available seat kilometers in 2024, which is expected to continue into 2025 due to fleet growth and improved flight utilization [4]. - The revenue structure is robust, with individual and institutional distribution income contributing 78% and 22% to passenger revenue respectively [5]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 7.4 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.7% [7]. - The net profit is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 129.3% in 2025 [7][11]. - The report anticipates a continued increase in unit operating income due to new subsidy regulations and strategic adjustments in capacity deployment [5][6].