鲁阳节能（002088）：2024年年报及2025年一季报点评：业绩略有承压，期待经营改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][5]. Core Views - The company experienced slight pressure on performance but is expected to improve operations in the future [1]. - Revenue and net profit for 2024 were reported at 3.53 billion and 480 million yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year change of +0.4% and -2.4% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a decline in revenue and net profit, with figures of 540 million and 60 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year decreases of -22.6% and -27.2% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.8 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 6.2% as of the announcement date [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from ceramic fiber products, automotive pads, and industrial filtration products was 3.21 billion, 140 million, and 160 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +2.9%, -35.6%, and +13.0% respectively [2]. - Domestic revenue was 3.27 billion yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year, while international revenue was 260 million yuan, down 9.0% [2]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 30.6%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for ceramic fibers, automotive pads, and industrial filtration products at 32.1%, 17.2%, and 10.9% respectively [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 13.6%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - For Q1 2025, the gross margin dropped to 25.6%, a decline of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 534 million and 558 million yuan, representing a decrease of 20% and 23% from previous estimates [4]. - The report anticipates a net profit of 591 million yuan for 2027 [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from improvements in governance and new business initiatives, which may drive growth [4]. Financial Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.04 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 [8][12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 17.7% in 2025, increasing to 18.3% by 2027 [11].