TFC(300394) 长江证券·2025-04-29 10:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 10% quarter-on-quarter, showing an acceleration compared to the previous two quarters. The growth in 2025 is primarily driven by the release of production capacity in Thailand and the ramp-up of the 1.6T optical engine [2][5]. - The gross margin slightly declined, while net profit margin was affected by exchange rate fluctuations. The company's overseas bases enhance delivery capabilities, helping to mitigate tariff impacts [2][5]. - The CPO/OIO market presents significant long-term opportunities, with the company establishing strong ties with major overseas clients, leading to a premium in valuation [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 945 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 338 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 8% [5]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 53%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin was 35.8%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year and 6.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to exchange rate fluctuations [2][5]. Market and Production Insights - The company is actively expanding production capacity in the optical passive device sector, with the first phase of the Thailand production line expected to start delivering soon. The second phase is also in preparation for expansion [2][5]. - The shift in focus from 800G products to 1.6T products by major clients is anticipated to accelerate delivery volumes in upcoming quarters, with the company well-prepared for this capacity increase [2][5]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 2.081 billion yuan, 2.741 billion yuan, and 3.386 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 55%, 32%, and 24%. The projected price-to-earnings ratios are 19x, 14x, and 11x [2][5].