光迅科技（002281）：营收及库存高增长，数通市场景气度高

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.272 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 36%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 661 million yuan, a 7% increase year-on-year [4]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.222 billion yuan, a 72% year-on-year increase, although it experienced a 23% quarter-on-quarter decline. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 150 million yuan, up 94% year-on-year, but down 24% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The growth in revenue and inventory in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 reflects a high demand in the downstream market, particularly for 400G and 800G optical modules [2][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's transmission business revenue for 2024 was 3.1 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year, primarily due to a slowdown in capital expenditure by operators. In contrast, the data and access business revenue was 5.1 billion yuan, up 91.5% year-on-year, driven by the ramp-up of 400G and 800G optical modules [10]. - The gross margin for the transmission business was 28.8%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for the data and access business was 17.8%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Market Demand and Inventory - The company experienced strong revenue growth in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by increased shipments of 400G and 800G products. The inventory in Q1 2025 increased by 32% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a proactive approach to stock up on core materials due to high downstream demand [10]. Cost and Expenses - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 25.6%, the highest since 2023, while the net margin was 6.6%. The fluctuations in costs and expenses were significant, with various expense ratios showing changes compared to the previous year [10]. Incentives and Future Growth - The company announced a stock incentive plan on March 25, 2025, granting up to 15.07 million shares to 985 core personnel, which is expected to enhance motivation and drive future growth [10]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1 billion yuan, 1.254 billion yuan, and 1.439 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 51%, 25%, and 15% [10].