盛新锂能（002240）：Q1费用高企导致亏损，印尼冶炼厂即将放量

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - Due to fluctuations in lithium prices at the bottom range, the profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised downwards. The expected net profits for 2025-2027 are -1.5 billion, 3.6 billion, and 9.0 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +76%, +335%, and +152%. The corresponding P/E ratios for 2026-2027 are projected to be 29x and 11x. The company possesses excellent lithium ore resources, and the Indonesian plant is about to ramp up production, hence the "Buy" rating is maintained [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 690 million, a decrease of 43.4% year-on-year and 36.7% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -150 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2%. The gross profit margin was 3.2%, with a net profit margin of -22.5% [9] - The high expenses in Q1 led to losses, but the Indonesian smelting plant is expected to start large-scale shipments, with annual shipments projected to increase significantly. The estimated lithium salt shipments for Q1 were about 11,000 tons, a decrease of approximately 35% due to maintenance [9] - The company’s Q1 expense ratio increased significantly, with a total expense ratio of 29.4%, up 15.9 percentage points year-on-year and 22.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Operating cash flow for Q1 was 350 million, a decrease of 23.5% year-on-year and 36.5% quarter-on-quarter [9] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The total revenue forecast for 2023 is 7.951 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 33.96%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 702.24 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 87.35% [3][10] - The company anticipates a recovery in production from its own mines in Q2, with an expected self-supply rate of 30-40% for the year. The total expected production for 2025 is approximately 250,000 tons of concentrate, equivalent to 30,000 tons of LCE [9]