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平煤股份(601666):成本压降成效显著,产量恢复有望改善业绩

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Pingmei Shenma Group Co., Ltd. is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by a decline in average coal prices, but it has significantly reduced costs. In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 22.44%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 152 million yuan, down 79.5% year-on-year and 50.18% quarter-on-quarter [1][3] - The company has implemented a strategy to actively expand into Xinjiang, acquiring significant coal resources which are expected to enhance its core competitiveness and profitability. In October 2024, the company successfully acquired exploration rights for a coal mine with a resource reserve of 1.668 billion tons for 1.748 billion yuan [3] - The company is focusing on clean and efficient coal utilization and extending its industrial chain. It plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary to develop new high-end functional carbon materials, which is expected to enhance the added value of its coal products [3] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2023 was 31.626 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 28.159 billion yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 35.056 billion yuan by 2027. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 4.01 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.241 billion yuan in 2025, before gradually increasing to 1.661 billion yuan in 2027 [5] - The gross margin is projected to decline from 31.5% in 2023 to 22.5% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 21.9% by 2027. The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decrease from 15% in 2023 to 4.8% in 2025, before improving to 6.1% in 2027 [5]