Shanxi Coking Coal Energy (000983) 民生证券·2025-04-29 12:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, considering its expected internal and external growth and high cash dividend ratio [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 45.29 billion yuan, down 18.43% year-on-year, and net profit at 3.11 billion yuan, down 54.1% year-on-year [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 also showed a decline in revenue to 9.03 billion yuan, down 14.46% year-on-year, and net profit at 681 million yuan, down 28.33% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company plans to maintain a stable operational strategy for 2025, targeting coal production of 46 million tons and coking coal production of 1.67 million tons [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a raw coal output of 47.22 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.47%, while the sales volume of commercial coal decreased by 20% to 25.6 million tons [2]. - The average selling price of coal fell by 5.43% to 1,037.23 yuan per ton, while the cost of sales per ton increased by 9.55% to 495.41 yuan per ton, leading to a decrease in gross margin by 6.85 percentage points to 52.29% [2]. Business Segments - The electricity and heat business reported a slight profit with a gross margin of 2.51%, while the coking business remained in a loss position with a gross margin of -0.48% [3]. - The company plans to produce 3.5 million tons of coke and generate 19.3 billion kWh of electricity in 2025, indicating a stable operational outlook [3]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.68 billion yuan, 3.02 billion yuan, and 3.24 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.47 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.57 yuan [4][5]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14, 12, and 11 times, respectively [4][5].