NHD(SZ:002946) Donghai Securities·2025-04-29 14:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4] Core Views - The company has demonstrated high-quality growth in the low-temperature product category, with profitability exceeding expectations [2][4] - The company reported a revenue of 10.67 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.93%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 537.69 million yuan, an increase of 24.8% [4][5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.42%, and a net profit of 133 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.46% [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s main revenue for 2024 is projected at 10,665.42 million yuan, with a forecasted growth of 4.85% in 2025, 6.25% in 2026, and 6.38% in 2027 [3][5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 537.69 million yuan in 2024 to 966.23 million yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 24.80%, 26.17%, 20.71%, and 17.99% [3][5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.62 yuan in 2024 to 1.12 yuan in 2027 [3][5] Product and Market Analysis - The low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt categories achieved mid-to-high single-digit growth in 2024, with high-end fresh milk and low-temperature modified milk showing double-digit growth [4][5] - The company’s strategy focuses on the "fresh and sour strong" product development, with the high-end "24-hour" series seeing over 15% revenue growth [4][5] - The East China region performed well, benefiting from a higher proportion of low-temperature products and rapid expansion of DTC channels [4][5] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s net profit margin improved to 5.15% in 2024, with a gross margin of 28.36% [4][5] - The asset-liability ratio decreased from 64.61% in 2024 to 62.24% in Q1 2025, indicating improved financial stability [4][5] - Sales expense ratio was 15.56% in 2024, with a slight increase due to competitive pressures, but was well-controlled in Q1 2025 [4][5] Investment Strategy - The company is committed to its "Fresh Cube Strategy," focusing on low-temperature products and DTC channels, with a clear strategic goal [4][5] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with new estimates of 6.78 billion yuan for 2025, 8.19 billion yuan for 2026, and 9.66 billion yuan for 2027 [4][5] - The corresponding EPS estimates have also been revised to 0.79 yuan for 2025, 0.95 yuan for 2026, and 1.12 yuan for 2027 [4][5]