Well Lead(603309) 华创证券·2025-04-29 15:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from low-cost to high-cost products, initiating a new phase of high growth despite facing external challenges in recent years [10][11]. - The overall profitability has significantly improved, with gross margins increasing from 43.2% in 2022 to 44.5% in 2024, despite revenue growth being impacted by external factors [2][41]. - Future growth is expected to be driven by the introduction of high-margin new products and the gradual reduction of the impact from anti-corruption measures in the domestic market [46][48]. Summary by Sections Product System Upgrade as Core Growth Driver - The company has focused on upgrading its product system across research, sales, and manufacturing, transitioning from a traditional low-value consumables company to a more innovative entity [15][16]. - R&D investment has increased from 0.42 billion in 2019 to 1.11 billion in 2024, with the R&D expense ratio rising from 4.3% to 7.4% [16][18]. Impact of External Factors on Performance - In 2023, external factors such as inventory destocking by overseas clients led to a decline in export revenue, which fell to 2.64 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18% [1][31]. - Domestic sales were also affected by anti-corruption measures, resulting in a 15% year-on-year decline in the second half of 2023 [1][34]. Future Outlook and Margin Improvement - The report anticipates that the impact of anti-corruption will diminish, allowing for the accelerated introduction of high-margin new products, which will boost domestic sales and margins [46][48]. - The company is also expanding its overseas operations to mitigate geopolitical risks, with plans for new manufacturing facilities in Mexico and Southeast Asia [49][50]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected total revenue for 2024 is 1.509 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.8%, and net profit is expected to reach 219 million, reflecting a 14% increase [4][12]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 16 yuan, with a current price of 11.59 yuan, indicating significant upside potential [4][9].