化工行业事件点评：H酸和活性染料涨价，涨价弹性和持续性可能超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The recent price increases of H acid and reactive dyes are primarily driven by a fire incident at a leading H acid producer, which significantly impacts supply [2][3]. - The domestic H acid industry is experiencing capacity clearance, and the fire incident is expected to accelerate the price increase process [3]. - There is strong overseas demand for H acid, which is contributing to the tightening supply-demand situation domestically [4]. - The reactive dye industry has a high concentration, with strong price increase intentions among companies due to the lack of new capacity [5]. - The price increases for H acid and reactive dyes have just begun, indicating substantial room for further price growth [6]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of April 29, the price of reactive dyes reached 22,000 CNY/ton, up 2,000 CNY/ton (+10%) from the previous day, while H acid was priced at 40,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 500 CNY/ton, totaling a rise of 4,000 CNY/ton (+11%) since mid-April [1]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The fire incident at a major H acid producer, which had a capacity of 20,000 tons/year and accounted for 25% of last year's domestic production, is expected to have a significant impact on supply [2]. - The H acid market has seen a gradual price increase since August 2023, and the recent fire incident is likely to further accelerate this trend [3]. Market Demand - In 2024, China's H acid production is projected to be 76,700 tons, with exports expected to reach 20,500 tons, representing 26.7% of domestic production. The export volume for the first quarter of 2025 has already increased by 54% year-on-year [4]. Industry Structure - The reactive dye industry has a high concentration with the top five companies holding a 76% market share. The lack of new capacity in recent years has led to a bottoming out of prices, which are now expected to rise due to increased costs from H acid [5]. Future Outlook - Historical data shows that H acid prices previously surged to 160,000-170,000 CNY/ton in 2014 due to similar supply constraints, suggesting that current price increases may have significant upside potential [6]. - The report recommends focusing on RunTu Co., which has a capacity of 80,000 tons for reactive dyes and 20,000 tons for H acid, positioning it as a key beneficiary of the price increases in the H acid-reactive dye supply chain [6].