BAIRUN CORPORATION(SZ:002568) EBSCN·2025-04-30 01:44Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The demand for pre-mixed cocktails remains weak, while the whiskey business is expected to provide new growth momentum [1][8] - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with a year-on-year revenue decrease of 6.6% to 3.05 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 11.2% to 720 million yuan [3][4] - The launch of whiskey products is anticipated to drive faster revenue growth in the future [6][7] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the pre-mixed cocktails segment generated 2.677 billion yuan in revenue, down 7.17% year-on-year, with sales volume decreasing by 8.81% [4] - The offline retail channel remains the primary sales channel, accounting for 89.96% of total revenue, despite a slight decline of 1.48% year-on-year [4] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin improved to 69.67% in 2024, with a notable increase in Q4 gross margin to 68.09% [5] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 increased significantly to 21.88% year-on-year, attributed to higher other income [5] Future Projections - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards to 809 million yuan and 940 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 13% and 12% from previous estimates [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.77 yuan, 0.90 yuan, and 1.05 yuan, respectively [8] Market Positioning - The whiskey products are targeted at the mid-range market, focusing on young consumers who are new to whiskey [7] - Marketing strategies include online content marketing and offline experiential activities to enhance brand visibility [7]