振华科技（000733）：业绩短期承压，前瞻性指标向好

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but forward-looking indicators are positive. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.219 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 970 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64%. For Q1 2025, revenue was 908 million yuan, down 10% year-on-year, with a net profit of 59 million yuan, down 43% year-on-year [4][5][6] - The decline in revenue and product price reductions have impacted profitability. The gross profit margin for 2024 was 49.70%, down 9.65 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 42.49%, down 5.07 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Forward-looking indicators are optimistic, with a projected revenue of 5.7 billion yuan and a total profit of 1.145 billion yuan for 2025. The company’s inventory at the end of 2024 was 2.243 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, indicating preparation for order fulfillment [7] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 52.70 yuan - Total shares: 5.54 billion, with a total market value of 29.2 billion yuan [3] Financial Performance - 2024 revenue: 5.219 billion yuan, down 33% year-on-year - 2024 net profit: 970 million yuan, down 64% year-on-year - Q1 2025 revenue: 908 million yuan, down 10% year-on-year - Q1 2025 net profit: 59 million yuan, down 43% year-on-year [4][5] Profitability Metrics - 2024 gross profit margin: 49.70%, down 9.65 percentage points year-on-year - Q1 2025 gross profit margin: 42.49%, down 5.07 percentage points year-on-year - 2024 expense ratios: Sales 5.72%, Management 13.87%, R&D 6.89%, Financial 0.19% [6] Future Projections - 2025 revenue forecast: 5.7 billion yuan, profit forecast: 1.145 billion yuan - Expected net profits for 2025-2027: 1.141 billion, 1.446 billion, and 1.750 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 26, 20, and 17 times [7][10]