恒顺醋业（600305）：Q1延续高增，仍待改革落地

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Hengshun Vinegar Industry (600305) with a target price of 8.8 yuan [1]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 626 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 57 million yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year [1][7]. - The revenue growth in Q1 2025 was driven by a low base effect from Q1 2024 and accelerated inventory preparation for the Spring Festival, leading to a significant increase in contract liabilities [7]. - Product-wise, revenue from vinegar, wine, and sauce increased by 19.1%, 9.1%, and 35.4% respectively, contributing to a total growth of 18.5% [7]. - Geographically, all regions except the Southwest saw revenue growth, with notable increases in the Northern, Eastern, and Central regions [7]. - Online and offline sales grew by 8.9% and 45.7% respectively, with the number of distributors increasing to 2,034 [7]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 35.5%, down 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product mix adjustments [7]. - The company aims to strengthen its core business and expand its secondary business under the new leadership, focusing on quality, marketing innovation, and cost reduction [7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2024A to 2027E, total revenue is projected to grow from 2,196 million yuan to 2,716 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.2%, 8.1%, 7.4%, and 6.6% respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 127 million yuan in 2024A to 231 million yuan in 2027E, with growth rates of 46.5%, 40.1%, 13.5%, and 14.3% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.11 yuan in 2024A to 0.21 yuan in 2027E, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 70 to 39 [3][7].