海澜之家（600398）：基本盘逐渐企稳，新零售业态持续壮大

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company's basic operations are stabilizing, and the new retail format is continuously expanding [1] - The company achieved better-than-expected earnings in Q1 2025, with a projected high dividend payout for the year [1] - The main brand's revenue decline is narrowing, and the proportion of direct sales is increasing [2] - Other brands, including Sporz and JD Outlet, are contributing to new growth points [3] - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, driven by new retail formats and a strong dividend policy [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 20.96 billion yuan (down 2.7% year-on-year) and a net profit of 2.16 billion yuan (down 26.9% year-on-year) [1] - Q1 2025 revenue reached 6.19 billion yuan (up 0.2% year-on-year) with a net profit of 935 million yuan (up 5.5% year-on-year) [1] - The company plans a cash dividend of 1.969 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 91.22% [1] Main Brand Performance - The main brand's revenue in 2024 was 15.27 billion yuan (down 7.2% year-on-year), but gross margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 46.5% [2] - The number of direct stores increased by 216 to 1,468, while franchise stores decreased by 359 to 4,365 [2] - The company is expanding into overseas markets, with 101 stores opened by the end of 2024, generating 355 million yuan in overseas revenue (up 30.75% year-on-year) [2] Other Brands - Other brands generated revenue of 2.67 billion yuan in 2024 (up 32.4% year-on-year), with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 740 million yuan (up 100.2% year-on-year) [3] - The company increased its stake in Sporz to 51% and reported significant contributions from this brand [3] - The partnership with JD to open JD Outlet stores is also expected to drive growth [3] Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice - Revenue is projected to grow to 22.3 billion yuan in 2025, 24.8 billion yuan in 2026, and 26.6 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.41 billion yuan, 2.66 billion yuan, and 2.91 billion yuan [4] - The new retail formats are expected to open up growth opportunities, and the company's high dividend yield is seen as stable [4]