BAIRUN CORPORATION(SZ:002568) EBSCN·2025-04-30 04:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The demand for pre-mixed cocktails remains weak, while the whiskey business is expected to provide new growth momentum [1][8] - The company has launched its whiskey products, which are anticipated to drive faster revenue growth [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year [3][4] - For Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 660 million yuan, a decline of 18% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 140 million yuan, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year [3][4] - In Q1 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 740 million yuan, down 8.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, up 7% year-on-year [3][4] Product Performance Summary - The pre-mixed cocktail segment generated revenue of 2.68 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7.17% year-on-year, with sales volume down 8.81% [4] - The food flavoring segment saw revenue of 337 million yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, indicating stable growth [4] Channel Performance Summary - Offline retail remains the primary sales channel, contributing 2.71 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 1.48% year-on-year, accounting for 89.96% of total revenue [4] - Digital retail channels experienced a significant drop in revenue, down 30.75% year-on-year, while the ready-to-drink channel saw a decline of 43.58% [4] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The company's gross margin improved to 69.67% in 2024, up 2.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to slight price increases and reduced commercial discounts [5] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 21.88%, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase due to higher other income [5] Future Outlook and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 809 million yuan and 940 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 13% and 12% [8] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.77 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34x [8]