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老凤祥(600612):2024年报及2025一季报点评:短期业绩承压,期待25H2业绩拐点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 56.793 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 20.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 17.52 billion yuan, a decline of 31.64% year-on-year, and a net profit of 613 million yuan, down 23.55% year-on-year, primarily due to the sustained rise in gold prices affecting gold and jewelry consumption [7] - The gross margin slightly increased, indicating an improvement in profitability. The gross margin for 2024 was 8.93%, up 0.63 percentage points year-on-year, with specific categories like jewelry, gold, and crafts showing respective increases in gross margin of 0.32, 0.92, and 3.06 percentage points [7] - The company is actively expanding its market presence despite lower-than-expected demand for gold and jewelry. As of the end of Q1 2025, the company had a total of 5,541 marketing outlets, including 188 direct stores [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s total revenue was 56.793 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 20.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 17.52 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.64% year-on-year, and net profit was 613 million yuan, down 23.55% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for 2024 was 8.93%, reflecting a slight increase, while the first quarter of 2025 showed a gross margin of 9.06% [7] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, jewelry sales accounted for 46.908 billion yuan, down 19.31% year-on-year, while gold trading revenue was 9.381 billion yuan, down 26.42% year-on-year. The company also reported a stable growth in pen sales, which reached 2.269 billion yuan, up 1.09% year-on-year [7] - Domestic sales in 2024 totaled 56.011 billion yuan, down 20.80% year-on-year, while overseas sales increased by 12.83% to 5.760 billion yuan [7] Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its market expansion efforts by promoting themed stores and upgrading retail store images. The total number of marketing outlets reached 5,541, with a net increase of one direct store and a net decrease of 288 franchise stores compared to the end of 2024 [7] - The report anticipates a potential turning point in performance in the second half of 2025, driven by a low base effect, despite the short-term suppression of consumer demand due to rising gold prices [7]