CAERI(601965) China Post Securities·2025-04-30 04:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [9][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 46.97 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.08 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.7% and 8.65% respectively. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 8.87 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.78 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.6% and 6.3% respectively [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 19.12 yuan - Total shares: 10.03 billion, circulating shares: 9.94 billion - Total market capitalization: 192 billion yuan, circulating market capitalization: 190 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 20.84/15.06 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 25.8% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 20.78 [4]. Business Performance - The core automotive technology service segment achieved revenues of 41.25 billion yuan in 2024 and 7.94 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with year-on-year growth of 21.4% and 11.5% respectively. This growth is attributed to the scaling of intelligent connected vehicle technologies and enhanced industry regulations [6]. - The equipment manufacturing segment saw a decline in revenue, with 5.35 billion yuan in 2024 and 0.93 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 20.5% and 45.2% respectively, due to reduced demand in the specialized vehicle market [6]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 44.5%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of high-margin automotive service business. The gross margin for automotive technology services remained stable at 48.4% [7]. - The total expense ratio decreased to 18.3%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing slight reductions [7]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 55.07 billion yuan, 65.16 billion yuan, and 77.63 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 10.79 billion yuan, 12.86 billion yuan, and 15.26 billion yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at 1.08 yuan, 1.28 yuan, and 1.52 yuan [9][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from synergies with its controlling shareholder, enhancing its market share in the vehicle certification and testing sectors [8].