山西汾酒（600809）：2024年报及2025一季报点评：步稳行健，笃志进取

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 12.8% and a net profit growth of 17.3% for the fiscal year 2024, with a slight decline in Q4 2024 revenue and net profit [7] - For Q1 2025, revenue and net profit increased by 7.7% and 6.2% respectively, with a rise in sales expense ratio impacting profit growth [7] - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns with a dividend payout ratio of 60% for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.0% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 31,928 in 2023 to 36,011 in 2024, and further to 40,058 in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.79% and 11.24% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 10,438 in 2023 to 12,243 in 2024, and to 13,470 in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.93% and 17.29% respectively [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 8.56 in 2023 to 10.04 in 2024, and to 11.04 in 2025 [1] Product and Regional Performance - The company's liquor revenue grew by 13.0% in 2024, with the Qinghua product line increasing by approximately 15% [7] - Revenue growth was observed both domestically and internationally, with increases of 11.7% and 13.8% respectively [7] - The company has implemented strict inventory control, leading to improved gross margin performance, with a gross margin of 76.2% for 2024 [7] Cost and Expense Management - The sales net profit margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 34.0% due to enhancements in gross margin and a decrease in tax rates [7] - Sales and management expenses increased by 15.8% and 23.6% respectively, attributed to personnel expansion and salary increases [7] Future Profitability Outlook - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to 13.5 billion RMB for 2025 and 15.4 billion RMB for 2026, with growth rates of 10% and 14% respectively [7] - The projected net profit for 2027 is 18.1 billion RMB, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [7]